Will anyone surpass Sachin?

October 17, 2008


Will anyone pass Tendulkar?


Well done Sachin Tendulkar, not only for breaking Brian Lara's Test record (it's just another run, after all) but for putting India into a strong position when things looked wobbly. At 163 for four, having been 146 for one, India were suddenly in trouble, pegged back by Mitchell Johnson. The important thing at that stage was not that Tendulkar should make 15 runs to beat Lara but that he and Sourav Ganguly should put on at least 100 together. Time for the old hands to step up to the mark.
This they did with a stand of 142 before Tendulkar was out in sight of his 40th Test hundred. A shade of impatience to get the job done before the close, perhaps? Peter Siddle joins Cameron White, who nabbed Tendulkar in the first Test, and Monty Panesar in the list of bowlers who claimed the world's leading run-scorer as their first victim.
So now that Sachin has taken his record on to 12,027, how far can he go? And who, if anyone will pass him? Tendulkar is 35 and could, if he wants, play on for a couple more years. I'm sure his fans want him never to retire, but 20 years in international cricket is a long time. Maybe he will eventually give up Tests to prolong his one-day career until the 2011 World Cup? One thing is certain: he will go on his own terms.
But let us assume that he leaves after getting to about 13,000 Test runs. Who can pass that? Rahul Dravid is the same age and almost 3,000 runs adrift. Ricky Ponting is also 3,000 runs back, but is two years younger. He may want to go on until he has reclaimed the record for Australia. Jacques Kallis (9,761 runs, age 33) probably won't get close.
It could be one of the Sri Lankans. Mahela Jayawardena is 31 and has scored 7,757 runs; Kumar Sangakkara is a year younger and has 6,356 runs. But by the time he was 31, Tendulkar had already scored almost 9,500 runs. He benefits from having started so young.
If anyone will pass him, my money is on a pair of left-handed openers. Graeme Smith is 27 and has scored 5,761 runs (only 200 runs fewer than Tendulkar at 27), while Alastair Cook has 2,573 runs at the age of 23 (again, only a hundred or so runs behind the Indian at the same age). I'm not suggesting that either of them is worthy to be mentioned in the same breath as Tendulkar, and lots can go wrong in a career, but they do have years on their side. Do they have the hunger and talent for it?

Ponting, Kallis, Pietersen, and GRAEME SMITH all have a chance.....

i think someone will have to beat it within 5 years. i dont know how many tests will be played per year in 2020 and i cant see someone who has not yet started playing tests breaking the record

lets hope sachin sets the bar at 14,000-15,000. a good last run should make it possible

Ponting is about 18 months younger and 1800 runs behind. Should be a close run thing.

And its not that Tendulkar will retire in another month or so. Which will extend the runs tally that Ponting/Kallis will have to cross.

SG wrote:And its not that Tendulkar will retire in another month or so. Which will extend the runs tally that Ponting/Kallis will have to cross.

I think Aust will play quite a lot more cricket over the next 12 months than India will (including a series against the seriously shit NZ). So Ponting with any reasonable form will probably be within 1000 runs by then.

India too will be playing NZ in the same period.

But I agree Tendulkar's dodgy fitness means that Ponting will close the gap sooner than later.

Ponting will do it, barring injuries. Australia play a lot more Tests than India and I haven't even heard any suggestions of him retiring in the near future, despite him being nearly 34 - he averages near enough 70 in the second half of his career and has shown no signs of decline.

Hard to say about the next generation, though I wouldn't back any England player to be up there as over here anyone who is past the age of 30 and has a bad series tends to be written off pretty quickly!

beamer wrote:Ponting will do it, barring injuries. Australia play a lot more Tests than India and I haven't even heard any suggestions of him retiring in the near future, despite him being nearly 34 - he averages near enough 70 in the second half of his career and has shown no signs of decline.

Hard to say about the next generation, though I wouldn't back any England player to be up there as over here anyone who is past the age of 30 and has a bad series tends to be written off pretty quickly!

KP, he had a later start due to not being picked until he was 25 but he scores prolifically.

If Punter stays fit he should due it but there are signs, despite the fact that he's in good shape, that some of his body parts aren't fully cooperating.

Here are some numbers that may help (includes the first test of the current series).

These are the players who have been mentioned in this thread so far. The final column is the number of extra tests they will have to play assuming they maintain their career runs per test.

.............Tests.......Runs....Runs per...Age.....Tests to reach
..........................................test..................15000 runs
Tendulkar.151..... 11939 ....79.1.......35.5........39
Ponting.....120......10239.....85.3.......34...........56
Kallis........123........9761.....79.3.......33...........66
Pietersen....43........3890.....90.4.......28.5......123
Smith.........70........5761.....82.3.......27.5......113
Sehwag......62........5243.....84.5.......30.........116
Sanga........76........6356.....83.6........31........104
Jayaward....98.......7757.....79.1........31..........92
Cook..........34.......2573.....75.6........24.........165
Dravid.......126.....10341.....81.7........36..........58

What are the chances of Cook playing 199 tests?

What are the chances of Cook playing 199 tests?

Nil. Graeme Smith has a real chance, imo. Almost 6000 runs at the age of 27 is good going so far.

Sanga runs per match figures are a bit misleading because he played so many tests down the order while keeping.

Ponting may actually score more runs per test because Aust are more likely to bat twice these days.

Smith is young but has been playing for a long time. I'm not sure his body has another 113 tests in it.

Red wrote:

beamer wrote:Ponting will do it, barring injuries. Australia play a lot more Tests than India and I haven't even heard any suggestions of him retiring in the near future, despite him being nearly 34 - he averages near enough 70 in the second half of his career and has shown no signs of decline.

Hard to say about the next generation, though I wouldn't back any England player to be up there as over here anyone who is past the age of 30 and has a bad series tends to be written off pretty quickly!

KP, he had a later start due to not being picked until he was 25 but he scores prolifically.

If Punter stays fit he should due it but there are signs, despite the fact that he's in good shape, that some of his body parts aren't fully cooperating.

KP would need to play until he was 37 or 38 to get close. i don't see him hanging around that long.

Basil wrote:KP would need to play until he was 37 or 38 to get close. i don't see him hanging around that long.

And as I said, the English way is to build people up and then knock them down. He may be the man of the moment right now but give it three or four years when he has a bad run of form, everyone will say he is past it and needs to be dropped no doubt. We push players aside far too soon - witness the lack of English players in the all-time lists - and it's largely media driven.

I think the rise of Twenty20 could well prevent the younger current players from challenging this record as well. Chances are there will be less Test cricket played over the coming decade than there has been in the recent past, perhaps putting a lot of the records set by this generation into the just about unbreakable category. Series are going to be dropped or reduced in length in order to fit in more of the money-spinning shorter stuff and avoid calendar clashes with IPL etc.

Ponting will break tendy's record within 18 months and set a target that will be difficult to reach

Henry wrote:

What are the chances of Cook playing 199 tests?

Nil. Graeme Smith has a real chance, imo. Almost 6000 runs at the age of 27 is good going so far.

World's best captain has an awful batting technique and will go through A LOT of bad patches.

Ponting will break tendy's record within 18 months

So you're assuming that Tendulkar will retire at the end of this series, right?

PlanetPakistan wrote:

Henry wrote:

What are the chances of Cook playing 199 tests?

Nil. Graeme Smith has a real chance, imo. Almost 6000 runs at the age of 27 is good going so far.

World's best captain has an awful batting technique and will go through A LOT of bad patches.

After 70 tests Smith has 5761. SRT had 5380.

Realistically, it's going to be Riggy Ponning or Graeme Sniff - if anyone out of the current playyers. GC Smith will get to play the Bangers about 8 more times in his career, you'd think, so that's around 2,000-2,700 runs right there.

KP has an outside chance.

Brass Monkey wrote:Realistically, it's going to be Riggy Ponning or Graeme Sniff - if anyone out of the current playyers. GC Smith will get to play the Bangers about 8 more times in his career, you'd think, so that's around 2,000-2,700 runs right there.

KP has an outside chance.

Wouldn't write off Kallis just yet.

Ponting could nudge 14,000 runs. 3 more years at 1300 runs per year. That may become a benchmark depending upon what SRT does in terms of longevity.

With Kallis, I just see him breaking down soon, unless he doesn't bowl and stands at slip all the time.

But geez he's got fat!!!

skully wrote:But geez he's got fat!!!

As a big fan of David Sales, I'm not in a position to comment.

Might be packing a bit of extra weight, but he's a pretty strong guy.