Re: So, forum financial gurus...

by lardbucket Fri 03 Jul 2015, 11:10

... what's an exit pole?

by taipan Fri 03 Jul 2015, 11:14

Firing squad?

by Merlin Fri 03 Jul 2015, 11:20

lardbucket wrote:... what's an exit pole?

Oops, my bad!

Poll, of course.

Still, it is heartening to see that you do read my posts after all, if only to criticise them!

by beamer Fri 03 Jul 2015, 17:53

I just can't see how Greece can ever be a viable, self-sufficient economy within the Eurozone, under monetary policy dictated from Brussels/Berlin - the bailouts just seem like throwing good money after bad in terms of everyone else, while delaying the inevitable.

In football terms, take the 10-point hit and go into administration. Short term pain but a chance to start again with a clean slate, a la Argentina, Iceland etc... otherwise they will just have this situation dragging on for a generation or longer.

by taipan Fri 03 Jul 2015, 18:51

Does Greece even have any industry?

by beamer Fri 03 Jul 2015, 21:18

Tourism, plate smashing and boring football...

by skully Fri 03 Jul 2015, 23:18

Isn't the big worry that if Greece folds then Spain, Italy, Portugal (who all have similar tourism based, low industry economies) might follow and bring on another GFC?

by JGK Sat 04 Jul 2015, 05:51

The credit spreads for those other governments hasn't really done much despite the likelihood of the fee it so probably not an immediate concern.

by skully Sat 04 Jul 2015, 13:04

Cheers MrK.

by Merlin Sat 04 Jul 2015, 16:37

skully wrote:Isn't the big worry that if Greece folds then Spain, Italy, Portugal (who all have similar tourism based, low industry economies) might follow and bring on another GFC?

Errrr .... let's not rule out Oireland.
They're also still swimming against the tide of mire!

by taipan Sat 04 Jul 2015, 16:59

JGK wrote:The credit spreads for those other governments hasn't really done much despite the likelihood of the fee it so probably not an immediate concern.

Italy is pretty industrialised despite the fact they are pretty crap at it. Shutting down factories for 3/4 weeks in the middle of summer is a tad annoying.

by Guest Sun 05 Jul 2015, 09:57

So basically, my Dad is a very lovely man who always tries to see and think the best of every situation, but unfortunately when it comes to a lot of things including finances, this viewpoint can lead to some pretty idiotic decisions. I obviously didn't realise or I would have said something before now but due to him living in Crete for a few years he told me yesterday that he has 15000 Euros, pretty much his life savings, in a Greek bank.

Any financial experts know how f*cked he is likely to be? Obviously I will never see him destitute and on the streets but I'm only 30 and struggling with rent etc myself so not particularly keen on the idea of looking after him yet if I can avoid it...

What's the worst case scenario? Could he literally just lose all of it? My expertise is telling people to turn their computers off and on again so am clueless as to how bad this is, but even with my limited understanding, I'm pretty sure that at the moment, it's not the best idea to have your life savings in a Greek bank....

by Merlin Sun 05 Jul 2015, 11:00

Not an easy one, vilks.
Sympathies to your Dad, but none but the most astute financiers saw this coming.
Perhaps it was the election success of the radical (and clueless) left wing Syriza
government that triggered off the chaos ... either way ... what's done is done!

His best bet is to await the results of the referendum being held today.
If the YES vote wins, then things ought to return gradually to "normal" with access to
Greek accounts available in the coming weeks.
If the NO vote wins the day, then things will be further complicated, as it shows that
the Grecians' still believe in their government, thus putting it on a collision course
with the EU and the IMF.
It's anyone's guess as to what deal may be hammered out ... but it doesn't look good.

Either way, there will be a deal ... better prospects if the Yes vote wins, worse if the NO vote prevails.

My advice, FWIW, is that your Dad begins wire transferring his savings across to a UK bank account
the moment he is allowed to. He may be penalised if he takes the entire chunk out in one lot ...
perhaps not if he does it in parcels ... the Greek Banks will be wary of exit transfers and might impose
their own penalties ... something he will have to be wary of.

Once he's transferred the lot (and converted it back to Sterling) he can use the UK account via ATM
withdrawals overseas ... just also look at additional costs for each ATM withdrawal.

Not much comfort there mate, but it's all a question of vigilance ... get ready to withdraw the moment
he is allowed to ... and I wish him the very best of luck as he does so.

PS - IMO, There is no "worst case" scenario ... as I don't believe the EU/IMF will dump on the Greeks
and leave them high and dry ... a deal will be brokered - it's just how austere it's going to be!

by Guest Sun 05 Jul 2015, 11:26

Cheers for the input merls, to be honest I think I'm worrying about it more than he seems to be (on the surface anyway, he might be suffering more than he is letting on).

He still lives in Crete so I think he will want easy access to Euros whilst he is over there. I just hope he doesn't lose it all if the banks go bankrupt but as you say that is in no one's best interest really so hopefully some sort of deal is made. Tense few days though to say the least.

by lardbucket Sun 05 Jul 2015, 11:57

Hope your Dad comes out of it OK.

by beamer Sun 05 Jul 2015, 19:18

Looks like "Oxi" has it, now will Europe call their bluff and pull the plug on the banks?

by Guest Sun 05 Jul 2015, 20:33

lardbucket wrote:Hope your Dad comes out of it OK.

Cheers lards, worrying times indeed.

I don't think he is arsed about losing a bit to inflation if the drachma comes back, but he obviously doesn't want to have it wiped out by inflation. He is 63 this year and basically needs it to last a couple of years until his state pension kicks in which along with his current pension should see him sorted.

Fingers crossed anyway.

by skully Sun 05 Jul 2015, 21:18

That's terrible, vilks. I can't imagine the anguish this is causing you. Fingers crossed that the eventual solution is relatively harmless to all concerned.

by skully Mon 06 Jul 2015, 07:58

Hang Seng bled 4.2% today. Sweet Jezus!!

by Merlin Mon 06 Jul 2015, 08:28

They're calling the FT down about 140 points (about 2 to 2.5 percent).
But medium term it's expected to shunt back up on the expectation
that it will not be all gloom and doom as Merkel and Hollande meet today in
Paris to hopefully hammer out a solution to keep the Grecco's in the Eurozone
(with the European Bank's blessing of course!).

This would naturally strengthen Tsipras's hand - however, his bike-riding
games console expert Finance Minister Varoufakis resigns despite the NO vote!
Guess he couldn't hack it, so it's back to Nintendo and PlayStation for him!

by Merlin Mon 06 Jul 2015, 10:14

FTSE down - but only by 0.58 %
Early days yet!

by taipan Mon 06 Jul 2015, 10:29

Ouch. I've taken a hammering. Must be down by 70 today.

by skully Wed 08 Jul 2015, 05:48

ASX going like the proverbial honeymoon nighty. All yesterday's gains wiped out today.

by taipan Wed 08 Jul 2015, 06:49

taipan wrote:Ouch. I've taken a hammering. Must be down by 70 today.

And another 200 yesterday.

by lardbucket Wed 08 Jul 2015, 07:22

no shares here; no super either

win win

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