Re: The Australian Federal Election 2010 Thread (III)

by Hass Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:10

It's interesting that Tony Windsor was one of the four independents who propped up Greiner's minority government after the 1991 election.

In that instance the independents acted as a group, got a list of commitments and held the government to account. The parliament ran its full four-year term, although Greiner had to resign (unfairly in my view) over the Metherell affair.

I think Windsor would want any agreement to be worked out on similar lines.

Oakeshott was on tele this morning saying, "all options" need to be considered and that following "strict party lines" was not the solution. I don't know if he thinks some sort of Grand Coalition is possible, but it looks like he's putting some feelers out about it.

In the end, I think the make-up of the Senate from July next year will play a massive role in all this. Labor and the Greens will be able to come to some arrangement and say to the indepdents they have a better chance of passing legislation. The indies will then extract their own concessions and agree not to vote down the government.

That is unless Gillard does something to piss them off, but it seems Truss and Barnaby are already doing a good job of that on the other side.

by Paul Keating Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:23

It is just all talk that the Independents want to negotiate with the Greens and Labor.

I have no doubt they will side with Abbott in the end.

As I said, I am not happy about it, but I will accept that Abbott will form government. He has won on most seats and hence he deserves to be leader of the nation.

by PeterCS Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:29

Looks nip n tuck to me.

by bodyline Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:33

The biggest benefit of forming the minority government is that you get to dictate the timing of the next election.

by PeterCS Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:35

Tony Windsor - any relation of Liz and Pip?

by Hass Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:53

PeterCS wrote:Tony Windsor - any relation of Liz and Pip?

Maybe Windsor will side with whichever party agrees to make him King of a new Australian monarchy.

by bodyline Mon 23 Aug 2010, 01:57

Bill Shorten, the former union boss who orchestrated the execution of Kevin Rudd from the Labor leadership, has been backed by punters to lead the party to the next election.

While hundreds of punters sweat on the final election outcome, Mr Shorten, the parliamentary secretary for disabilities, has been installed as the clear favourite with bookies to topple the Prime Minister Julia Gillard, who is fighting to form a minority government.

Leading betting agency Centrebet has Mr Shorten, a Victorian Labor-right figure who is married to the daughter of Governor-General Quentin Bryce, a $2.70 favourite, with Ms Gillard at $4.10.

Mr Shorten is widely credited as joining forces with NSW Labor powerbroker, Mark Arbib, and South Australian party factions boss, David Feeney, to launch the dramatic late-night assault on Mr Rudd's prime ministership in June.

The fallout from Mr Rudd's demise has been blamed for huge swings against Labor in Queensland, where it is set to lose nine seats to the Coalition.

Centrebet's spokesman Neil Evans said Financial Services minister Chris Bowen was third favourite to lead the party at $7 with former ACTU boss and Defence Materiel minister Greg Combet close behind at $8.50.

Treasurer Wayne Swan, who suffered an embarrassing swing against him in his Brisbane seat of Lilley, is an outsider at $15, while Mr Rudd has the juicy odds of $31.

"Of course, the market will move depending on who can eventually form government, but if the Coalition takes power, Ms Gillard's hopes of being leader when Australia next votes would nose-dive," Mr Evans said.

Evans said the Coalition remained at $1.57 to form government, with Labor at $2.25 - although they had firmed markedly in the past few hours.

THE CENTREBET MARKET

$2.70. Bill Shorten
$4.10 Julia Gillard
$7 Chris Bowen
$8.50 Greg Combet
$9 Any Other
$12 Stephen Smith
$14 Anthony Albanese
$15 Wayne Swan
$21 Kate Ellis
$26 Nicola Roxon
$31 Kevin Rudd

by Paul Keating Mon 23 Aug 2010, 02:08

Gillard will remain leader.

by JGK Mon 23 Aug 2010, 02:42

Aye. She will be outstanding in Parliament against Abbott.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 02:45

A great win for regional Australia whichever side gets govt, and who would actually want to get govt during this mess.

by Zat Mon 23 Aug 2010, 02:58

bodyline wrote:Bill Shorten, the former union boss who orchestrated the execution of Kevin Rudd from the Labor leadership, has been backed by punters to lead the party to the next election.

If the ALP forms a government, there's no way in the world they'll change leaders during the term, short of Gillard doing something illegal.

by bodyline Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:01

JGK wrote:Aye. She will be outstanding in Parliament against Abbott.

Based on her campaigning skills - I can't wait - the Libs/Nats will have a field day over her performance.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:03

73/73 now according to the radio. Only caught the tailend of the piece, they might have declared Denizen.

by bodyline Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:19

Bradman wrote:73/73 now according to the radio. Only caught the tailend of the piece, they might have declared Denizen.

WA only seat still to be called - before the usual challenges/recounts/court cases/ etc etc.

by JGK Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:24

I think without Hasluck it is 73/72 isn't it - with 4 cross.

Haven't seen an update for Hasluck since yesterday when Libs were 370 ahead. Might have something to do with timezones.

by JGK Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:25

bodyline wrote:
JGK wrote:Aye. She will be outstanding in Parliament against Abbott.

Based on her campaigning skills - I can't wait - the Libs/Nats will have a field day over her performance.

BTW BL - I owe you a beer for the Wyatt Roy tip.

by Paul Keating Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:29

So the only way the Coalition can claim legitimacy is through winning on primary votes.

Paul Kelly in the Australian said it should not be based on 2PP, but on who had the most seats. Which is now equal it appears.

If it is 73-73, then it makes it an even harder decision for the three independents.

Green is obviously going to Labor.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:35

Heard kezza's show with the the indies last night. Jesus they dropped a bucket of sh1t on the Nats in general and Barnaby specifically. Katter's take on it that Abbott would have been looking for 'assassins are us' was dead on.

I think the Greens having control of the Senate might swing it for the ALP as this way you'd at least get some legislation passed.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:37

JGK wrote:
bodyline wrote:
JGK wrote:Aye. She will be outstanding in Parliament against Abbott.

Based on her campaigning skills - I can't wait - the Libs/Nats will have a field day over her performance.

BTW BL - I owe you a beer for the Wyatt Roy tip.

i placed my bet 9an all-up on some Brisbane marginals and Capricornia before I was aware of the ALP guy running down the disabled kiddies Dad.

Young Wyatt has a lot to be thankful for.

by Zat Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:47

bodyline wrote:
Bradman wrote:73/73 now according to the radio. Only caught the tailend of the piece, they might have declared Denizen.

WA only seat still to be called - before the usual challenges/recounts/court cases/ etc etc.

Paul Keating wrote:So the only way the Coalition can claim legitimacy is through winning on primary votes.

Paul Kelly in the Australian said it should not be based on 2PP, but on who had the most seats. Which is now equal it appears.

If it is 73-73, then it makes it an even harder decision for the three independents.

Green is obviously going to Labor.

From http://abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010

The latest election count shows the independent Andrew Wilkie, might not win the Tasmanian seat of Denison and both the Coalition and Labor would have 73 seats each.

The result in Denison is very close, but if the seat falls to Labor's Jonathon Jackson, the ALP is likely to have 73 seats in Parliament, there would be three independents and one Greens MP.

The ABC's election computer is suggesting the seat of Hasluck in Western Australia and the electorate of Brisbane will both go to the Coalition giving it 73 seats or exactly the same as Labor.

But there is the complication that one of those seats is O'Connor - where the WA Nationals Tony Crook defeated the Liberals' Wilson Tuckey. Mr Crook says he won't form part of a Coalition and has vowed to put the state's interests first. The latest predictions have given Labor confidence. Senior ALP figures say with 73 Labor MPs they could work with the Green Adam Bandt to be closer to forming a minority government.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:49

I like Crook's idea of Royalties for regions. This third force stuff could take hold.

by Hass Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:50

I think it's worth looking at what the Greens and the three rural independents have in common.

They support the NBN.
They support reforming question time and having an independent speaker.
They support giving more weight to private members bills.
They support more money being spent on agriculture
They support policies that promote Australian produce over imported goods
They support improved protection for pastoral leases.

The indepdendents will try to wring out big concessions from Labor on all these issues, knowing they can be implemented with support from the Greens.

Climate change is interesting. Oakeshott is a massive ETS supporter, Windsor wants massive cuts in emissons but isn't sold on an ETS and Katter is a climate change sceptic. We might end up seeing the ETS revived with a stronger target and massive concessions for some rural industries.

by Bradman Mon 23 Aug 2010, 03:57

So basically the two big things Abbott didn't want he'll have to put up with whether in govt or not.

If the indies support him I can't wait for a lot more three minute press conferences a la yesterday, as he rolls back his election platform piece by piece.

It was probably appropriate one of his campaign stops was "Red Faces".

by Paul Keating Mon 23 Aug 2010, 04:03

I don't think any so called "pinkos" should get their hopes up of Gillard holding onto power.

I think the odds are heavily stacked in Abbott's favour.

This is not a woof, reverse woof or whatever. Obviously I want Labor maintaing government, but I cannot see how three conservative electorates would allow their elected member to go into alliance with the loony Labor party.

by bodyline Mon 23 Aug 2010, 04:06

Paul Keating wrote:I don't think any so called "pinkos" should get their hopes up of Gillard holding onto power.

I think the odds are heavily stacked in Abbott's favour.

This is not a woof, reverse woof or whatever. Obviously I want Labor maintaing government, but I cannot see how three conservative electorates would allow their elected member to go into alliance with the loony Labor party.

The argument they could make is the ALP had more seats - i.e. 74:72 - so they supported the party with the majority of seats.

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