Re: Aus Federal Politics thread (IV)

[Paul Keating]

I have a bit of a dilemma, I was about to fix most of my mortgage for 3 years at 5.99% but the variable will go down to about 6.24% anyway with the prospect of more to come.

I would fix it after one more rate cut. So aim for fixing it in about April.

JGK - also depends on if you are looking to sell your property within in the next three years.

[horace]

barney and NSR - a match made in heaven...but then Barney has found a match - unlike the perennially unlucky RD

[bodyline]

barney and NSR - a match made in heaven...but then Barney has found a match - unlike the perennially unlucky RD

Yawn!

[JGK]

I have a bit of a dilemma, I was about to fix most of my mortgage for 3 years at 5.99% but the variable will go down to about 6.24% anyway with the prospect of more to come.

I would fix it after one more rate cut. So aim for fixing it in about April.

JGK - also depends on if you are looking to sell your property within in the next three years.

No I'm not. I only just bought it.

[Big Dog]

I suppose most of the bogans can read. But if the thicko fascists need it hammered into them................Interest rates dropped again today.

This has more to do with a hedge against the Euro dilemma than anything Gillard or Swan has done. In fact its a bit of a gamble but i'm sure Juliar will take full credit.

[bodyline]

Of course rates are low under the Government - coz unemploymentr is rising!


Australia's economy shed almost 40,000 full-time jobs last month, pushing the unemployment rate up to 5.3 per cent, and raising the likelihood of more interest rate cuts to come.

The economy lost 39,900 full-time positions last month more than reversing the 26,200 full-time jobs added in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported today. The tally was the most full-time positions shed by employers since April.

"It's a softer number...much weaker than the market had been looking for," said Macquarie economist Brian Redican. "The longer this kind of softness persists the greater downside risk for consumer spending and that's just going to put pressure on businesses."

Advertisement: Story continues below Australia's economy is increasingly divided between the booming resource sector and stagnant non-mining industries. Figures out this week pointed to Australia's growth picking up - and remaining the envy of much of the rest of the rich world - but most of the expansion is coming in Western Australia and Queensland alone.

"A lot of people were getting excited about growth numbers yesterday," Mr Redican said, noting third-quarter GDP expanded by a better-than-expected 1 per cent. "This employment data indicates the strong economy is not translating into more jobs."

A surge in part-time hiring, though, helped moderate the overall job loss for the economy to 6,300 positions for the month.

Economists had tipped the jobless rate to remain at 5.2 per cent last month, matching the previous month's 5.2 per cent published figure. The analysts also predicted the economy would add a net 10,000 jobs for November.

Employment growth last month was dominated by part-time demand, with employers adding 33,600 such positions - the most in a month since October 2010.

Rates view

The Australian dollar dived half a US cent on today's jobs figures to $US1.023 in recent trading as investors bet today's weak jobs figures increased the changes the Reserve Bank will extend its series of interest rate cuts to bolster growth.

Michael Blythe, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank, says the economy at an ''equilibrium spot."

"This probably adds marginally to the case for a cut in February, or explains why the RBA cut," Mr Blythe said. "The labour market clearly is softer. That's certainly something that's important in RBA calculations."

Earlier this week, the RBA sliced interest rates another 25 basis points, its first back-to-back monthly rate cut since April 2009. So far, though, none of the big four commercial banks has adjusted their lending rates in the wake of Tuesday's rate reduction.

Today's drop in jobs was ''not at an alarming pace,'' said Su-lin Ong, senior economist for RBC Capital Markets. ''But that tells you a lot about the underlying economy and that will keep the RBA's easing bias firmly intact.''

RBC expects another 50 basis point cut in the RBA's cash rate to 3.75 per cent next year, while some other economists are predicting even steeper cuts.

Financial markets are rating the prospect of a February rate cut by the RBA at about a 40 per cent chance. Investors, though, tip the RBA's cash rate to fall to at least 3.25 per cent in a year's time - implying four more 25 basis-point cuts.

Total jobs

Total employment fell to 11.457 million in the month, with full-time employment dropping to 8.026 million in November and part-time employment rising to 3.431 million.

The ABS report also showed aggregate hours worked by employed people fell by 0.7 per cent in November, seasonally adjusted, after a rise of 0.8 per cent in October. Aggregate hours worked in November 2011 were 0.8 per cent higher than in November 2010, compared with a rise 3.5 per cent between November 2009 and November 2010 - indicating a slowdown in growth.

The November participation rate - a measure of the proportion of the working age population looking for work - was 65.5 per cent, compared with a 65.6 per cent in October. The participation rate was forecast to remain at 65.6 per cent.

NSW on the improve

Today's jobs figures, though, don't entirely reinforce the resource-led economy view.

New South Wales, the most populous state, saw its unemployment rate decline to 5.2 per cent in November from 5.3 per cent, while in Victoria it rose to 5.5 per cent from 5.4 per cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In Queensland, the jobless rate rose to 5.8 per cent in November from 5.7 per cent, while in Western Australia it was flat at 4.3 per cent over the two months.

In Tasmania it rose to 6 per cent in November from 5.1 per cent in October. In South Australia, the jobless rate was flat at 5.3 per cent over the two months

The jobs figures today mark the last major economic official data due for release this year.

ANZ job ads were flat in November from a revised 0.6 per cent fall in October. The forward-looking reading on the jobs market suggests weaker growth to come, analysts say.

More to come

czappone@fairfax.com.au with AAP, Reuters




Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/jobless-rate-rises-to-53-20111208-1okar.html#ixzz1fuPsjDLY

[Paul Keating]

BL,

What was the unemployment rate in Nov 2007?

[Paul Keating]

It was 4.5% back then

5.3% now - not bad considering the GFC

[embee]

unless you are part of the 5.3%

[Paul Keating]

4-5% is basically full employment MB

And even your messiah Abbott says there are people out there who do not want to work.

Give some credit.

[embee]

Abbott is not my messiah

"basically" and "actually" have different meanings .

If they let us shoot the bludgers who dont want to work it would improve figures

[bodyline]

And what was the growth rate back then????

What was the trade position????

[Paul Keating]

Have you magically forgotten the world is a different place now?

The global economy is tanked.

[bodyline]

If they let us shoot the bludgers who dont want to work it would improve figures

That would wipe out 90% of the green vote - fark let's legislate it now!

[Hass]

Most of the Green vote tends to come from professionals with steady jobs.

[bodyline]

Most of the Green vote tends to come from professionals with steady jobs.

Get ya hand off it Hass!

[G.Wood]

Abbott is not my messiah

"basically" and "actually" have different meanings .

If they let us shoot the bludgers who dont want to work it would improve figures

I watched Inside Job last night. If you have any spare bullets you may want to use them at Wall st or the Econimics Faculties at Harvard or Columbia

[JGK]

I recently met Satjitya Das who was interviewed in that movie (as an aside, his childhood dream was to open the batting for India).

Anyhoo - he reckons that the world is basically farked so stock up on jerry cans full of petrol and guns.

[Big Dog]

Most of the Green vote tends to come from professionals with steady jobs.

Not from what i have seen. Most of them come from the comfortably retired middle class, students under the age of 30 & unemployable ferrals....oh..& a handful of trendy minorities like friends of the earth & sections of the gay lobby.

[embee]

I recently met Satjitya Das who was interviewed in that movie (as an aside, his childhood dream was to open the batting for India).

Anyhoo - he reckons that the world is basically farked so stock up on jerry cans full of petrol and guns.

Copying the antics of wozzies and banjos wont create minerals in the ground

[Paul Keating]

I still cannot fathom why the Green vote is so high.

Surely disillusioned Labor voters who wanted to teach the ALP a lesson in the 2010 election by voting Green instead, got the fright of their life when it looked like the Coalition would win. But no, they still insist on voting Green.

FFS - a vote for the Greens means a vote for Abbott

Get it in your head. You vote Green, you vote for a Coalition win in 2013.

[Paul Keating]

Most of the Green vote tends to come from professionals with steady jobs.

Not from what i have seen. Most of them come from the comfortably retired middle class, students under the age of 30 & unemployable ferrals....oh..& a handful of trendy minorities like friends of the earth & sections of the gay lobby.

You are right.

But Hass is right too. A lot of green supporters are young professionals who live in Balmain and Paddington. Pretty affluent areas.

[Mick Sawyer]

I still cannot fathom why the Green vote is so high.

Surely disillusioned Labor voters who wanted to teach the ALP a lesson in the 2010 election by voting Green instead, got the fright of their life when it looked like the Coalition would win. But no, they still insist on voting Green.

FFS - a vote for the Greens means a vote for Abbott

Get it in your head. You vote Green, you vote for a Coalition win in 2013.

It's really quite simple Ponts, neither of the major parties has a leader with any kind of magnetism. The major parties are both trying to occupy the middle ground socially & the right of middle economically. That leaves a lot of room for people who think Abbott & Gillard are arseclowns or those with a social conscience in the space booked by the Greens.

[lardbucket]

Most of the Green vote tends to come from professionals with steady jobs.

Not from what i have seen. Most of them come from the comfortably retired middle class, students under the age of 30 & unemployable ferrals....oh..& a handful of trendy minorities like friends of the earth & sections of the gay lobby.

It's goanna be a great day tomorrow

[Big Dog]

I still cannot fathom why the Green vote is so high.

Surely disillusioned Labor voters who wanted to teach the ALP a lesson in the 2010 election by voting Green instead, got the fright of their life when it looked like the Coalition would win. But no, they still insist on voting Green.

FFS - a vote for the Greens means a vote for Abbott

Get it in your head. You vote Green, you vote for a Coalition win in 2013.

It's really quite simple Ponts, neither of the major parties has a leader with any kind of magnetism. The major parties are both trying to occupy the middle ground socially & the right of middle economically. That leaves a lot of room for people who think Abbott & Gillard are arseclowns or those with a social conscience in the space booked by the Greens.

So Bob Brown is'nt an arseclown? I maintain he's the leader of the push.

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