McGrath and Warne: an appreciation

England has never won a Test in Australia in which both Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath played.



The batting averages of Australia’s opponents show that the absence of either bowler has had an impact on Australia’s fortunes, and the effect is amplified when both are absent. Over the last 10 years, opponents’ averages have been:



With both players present (84 Tests): 25.9 runs per wicket.

With Warne absent (29 Tests): 29.0

With McGrath absent (25 Tests): 34.1

With both players absent (9 Tests): 39.0



The average with both absent rises to 42.7 if Tests against Zimbabwe are ignored. Such an average, although based on a small number of matches, is a cause for concern. It is similar to the average of West Indian bowlers in recent years; the West Indies have been managing only about one Test victory per year against serious opposition over the last five years.



McGrath and Warne will be missed; just how much remains to be seen. One good sign, for the team, is that neither bowler has been Australia’s best in the whitewash, that honour going to Stuart Clark. Australia’s batting will remain strong, so the worst case is probably that Australia will decline from near-invincibility to mere dominance.



The absence of any real challengers to Australia’s #1 position creates an environment different to the last mass retirement, that of Greg Chappell, Rod March, and Dennis Lillee in 1984. Lillee, in particular, was every bit as critical to his team’s success as Warne or McGrath, perhaps even more so. His career was marked by 31 wins to 16 losses; when he was absent, Australia’s fortunes were almost reversed, 14 wins and 21 losses, and the ratio is even more extreme if Tests just before and just after his career are included (15 wins, 32 losses).



The “Lillee effect”, however, was much stronger at home than away, because he played very few Tests on the subcontinent or in the Caribbean. By contrast, both Warne and McGrath have stronger records away than at home, so we might expect Australia to miss them more when on tour.



When Lillee and the others left the stage, the West Indies immediately took up the mantle of top team, thanks in part to a nightmare schedule where the new Australia played ten Tests in twelve months against them, a sequence that destroyed Kim Hughes’ career. The current Australians team, even without its retirees, has much less to fear.