This about Swann (or other offie) being "dangerous v left-handers"

Brass Monkey wrote:

PeterCS wrote:If so, is it noticeably different from other offies? (perhaps excluding Ajmal, who is a more miscellaneous type of bowler, from this argument).

Lyon, for obvious example. Though his shorter career to date might not produce very decisive figures.

Again, sorry for the statistics, they're wrong - I can't be f*cked to find out where, but this analysis is for 87 wickets when actually Lyon has 84.

Hand	Wickets( % )	Average	S/R
Right	65 ( 74.7 )	21.26	38.8
Left	22( 25.3 )	36.54	127.3

Howstat?

PeterCS wrote:

Dello wrote:

taipan wrote:Well to change it up a bit. Warne has 76% of his dismissals against RH, so that would support the contention of the ball spinning away being more dangerous.

But then the stats are muddied by the fact that Ashley Giles took 100% of his dismissals with balls that neither span in or away from batsmen.

I DEFINITELY saw one of Gilo's turn - must have been ... 2004?

I think it may have hit a little bit of sh*t on the pitch.

Ah - the famous jellybean delivery of 2004.

taipan wrote:
Howstat?

No, it's Cricinfo that the raw stats come from, plus some shit in Excel that I did, plus some more Cricinfo bollocks.

Brass Monkey wrote:

PeterCS wrote:If so, is it noticeably different from other offies? (perhaps excluding Ajmal, who is a more miscellaneous type of bowler, from this argument).

Lyon, for obvious example. Though his shorter career to date might not produce very decisive figures.

Again, sorry for the statistics, they're wrong - I can't be f*cked to find out where, but this analysis is for 87 wickets when actually Lyon has 84.

Hand	Wickets( % )	Average	S/R
Right	65 ( 74.7 )	21.26	38.8
Left	22( 25.3 )	36.54	127.3

Now I AM a bit confused.

But unless fundamentally farqed (could those figures for 87 wickets be ALL international wickets, and date from 2 or 3 years ago??), it suggests Lyon likes it the other way round!

I have noticed lately he seems to enjoy success against right-handers - but "anecdotal evidence" or casual impression is often misleading.

Might also simply be that v England, he gets to bowl far more v RHBs than LHBs! (most of the current Pom Test lefties are either at the top or very end of the order - most recently 1, 9, 11. The spinner may bowl less to them.)

Dello wrote:

PeterCS wrote:

Dello wrote:

taipan wrote:Well to change it up a bit. Warne has 76% of his dismissals against RH, so that would support the contention of the ball spinning away being more dangerous.

But then the stats are muddied by the fact that Ashley Giles took 100% of his dismissals with balls that neither span in or away from batsmen.

I DEFINITELY saw one of Gilo's turn - must have been ... 2004?

I think it may have hit a little bit of sh*t on the pitch.

Ah - the famous jellybean delivery of 2004.

Phew. I am just relieved you didn't mention Belly leaning forward under the lid.

PeterCS wrote:
Now I AM a bit confused.

But unless fundamentally farqed (could those figures for 87 wickets be ALL international wickets, and date from 2 or 3 years ago??), it suggests Lyon likes it the other way round!

I have noticed lately he seems to enjoy success against right-handers - but "anecdotal evidence" or casual impression is often misleading.

Might also simply be that v England, he gets to bowl far more v RHBs than LHBs! (most of the current Pom Test lefties are either at the top or very end of the order - most recently 1, 9, 11. The spinner may bowl less to them.)

No, Lyon only has one other international wicket.

As I say I can't be arsed to see where it went wrong but although the stats are a little rough, at the same time the percentile shifts would be meagre - they'll do as an indicator.

There obviously have to be allowances for who they've faced so far in terms of number of LHBs, but again, the figures are so stark that the discussion of such variable parameters are almost futile.

Using just opinion, he's immeasurably more dangerous against left-handers because he can easily beat either edge of the bat. This rings true for any off-spinner but Swann's arm-ball, in particular, is deadly. It gives him a chucky-style of weapon, without the cheating.

Even if people find him to be a wanker, he's got to be a hero of theirs because he's given the art attacking off-spin, that's a genuine wicket-taking threat, a boost without having to bend his arm / the rules.

Any off-spinner prefers bowling to left handers, unless their name is Graham Pollock or Brian Lara ...

For a start, you can attack the stumps without worrying about the batsman working you off his legs with the spin for singles all the time. If he wants to hit to leg, he is going against the spin and risks a leading edge. By attacking his stumps, especially from around the wicket, you straighten down the line, bringing lbw and bowled into the equation, as well as caught at slip/gully/point/cover.

Bowling to right handers really limits your modes of dismissal, unless there is a lot of spin. You need to rely more on flight, beating the batsman in the air, and hoping for catches forward of the wicket, bowled because of a mis-reading of flight, or of course stumped. When there is little spin, the line outside off is inoccuous. Of course, when the ball is spinning a lot, you can attack a fourth or even fifth stump line outside off and the right hander is vulnerable to catches behind the wicket and at short leg.

My contention would be that an off-spinner will probably present more of a risk to left handers when the conditions are better for batting, but that when the ball really starts turning, the right handers start to feel the pinch as well.

Aye, but I started this thread wondering: a. what sort of a differential there might be in the case of Swann for example, and b. whether a top-class spinner shouldn't to able to present problems for just about any batsman, given reasonably favourable conditions for his F & G.

Not so much as to whether spinners might not favour batsmen one way round or the other.

I like Dan's encomium for Graeme Swann. With certain character-based qualifications. ~ But at least he doesn't keep blanking you.

Swann vs LH/RH:

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/20431.html?class=1;filter=advanced;orderby=default;template=results;type=bowling;view=dismissal_summary

LH/RH	Span	Dis	bwd	c fie	c wk	st	lbw	hw	Ave	0s
right-hand batsman	2008-2013	132	32	65	2	5	28	0	32.68	12
left-hand batsman	2008-2013	116	23	35	9	6	43	0	26.18	13

Well that was a good first post worked fine in the preview

Hi btw...

Hello - good to have you aboard. You need to change all the '<' for '[' and the '>' for ']'s. If you get me.

Zaphod wrote:Well that was a good first post :xworked fine in the preview

Hi btw...

Hi, better than most first posts. 

taipan wrote:
Hi, better than most first posts. 

Wholeheartedly agree - was a top first post. I think mine was 'So, this is that place I got forced to join?'

Welcome Zaphod, and a very apposite post.

(Opposite to most first posts, as has been noted.)

Looking at Zaphod's stats:

The number of LBWs is pretty mighty there - as is the LBW differential between RHB and LHB, given the reverse differential of batsmen between these. The ability to get the decision by pitching up straight and in line must make all the difference nowadays, where umpires give 'em (or else DRS overrules 'em).

Perhaps more predictable is the differential for "caught at the wicket", but striking perhaps is the low number of those dismissals generally (compared with LBW in particular)?

"Caught fielder" suggests ("per capita") very nearly as many batsmen miscue/mistime off him batting either way round (LHB, RHB). In other words, this is where Swann has relatively most joy against right-handers.

I think the cricinfo stats just give the average based on the score of the batsman dismissed rather than how many runs Swann himself has conceded 132 @ 32.7 & 116 @ 26.2 would average out at 29.7 altogether, and Swann's career average is 28.4.

I remember 18 months ago Sky had a graphic where they had individually analysed all his career figures based on RH & LH batsmen and it was similar to what Monkeh posted earlier - 21 for LH and 35 for RH batsmen.

Monty had similarly divergent figures, but his average was lower against right handers (part of the reason they should play in tandem more often).

One of the main advantages Swann has bowling at left handers is there are usually bowlers footmarks on a decent length for him to bowl into. Less so against right handers unless the bowlers have been bowling round the wicket (or left arm over).

Of the 9 batsmen Swann has dismissed 5 times or more in Tests, 7 - Gambhir, Chanderpaul, North, Herath, Devon Smith, Khawaja & Rogers are left handed. The two right handers are Sehwag and Haddin (although he has played considerably more matches against Haddin than the others on this list). Swann has only dismissed Michael Clarke twice in 14 matches, and he's never dismissed Watson at all.

So, definitely a lot of truth in the observation.

Gary 111 wrote:I think the cricinfo stats just give the average based on the score of the batsman dismissed rather than how many runs Swann himself has conceded 132 @ 32.7 & 116 @ 26.2 would average out at 29.7 altogether, and Swann's career average is 28.4.

...

I can't see that works - or would be meaningful.


But the cricinfo figures look jiggered in all sorts of ways.


I don't even know what their "filtered" figures are supposed to indicate, that award Swann variously 413 or 530 Test wickets off 46 matches.

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/20431.html?batting_hand=1;class=1;filter=advanced;template=results;type=bowling;view=dismissal_list
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/player/20431.html?batting_hand=2;class=1;filter=advanced;template=results;type=bowling;view=dismissal_list


But anyway, just one more example, as a test of the stats reliability:

Calculating up the given RHB/LHB totals of runs Swann is said to have conceded:

His RHB 132 wkts @ stated 32.68 each > would make > +/- 4314 runs conceded
His LHB 116 wkts @ stated 26.18 each > would make > +/- 3037 runs conceded

Total conceded runs on that basis: = 7351 runs.

But, as a global figure, cricinfo gives his total Test runs conceded as 6948.

Could it be that cricinfo's esteemed database is a heap of soft wonky baloney?

No, the stats are correct, just doesn't really tell us much.

Eg if Swann bowled David Boon out first ball, but he was already on 96 having smashed 16 successive sixes off Tim Bresnan cricinfo would show Swann's average dismissal of Boon being for 96.

Their database isn't sophisticated enough to break it down ball by ball.

Well, that's just bilge and balderdash then.

Gary 111 wrote:No, the stats are correct, just doesn't really tell us much.

Eg if Swann bowled David Boon out first ball, but he was already on 96 having smashed 16 successive sixes off Tim Bresnan cricinfo would show Swann's average dismissal of Boon being for 96.

Their database isn't sophisticated enough to break it down ball by ball.

Yep, was thinking that last night. To get the average right it has to show how many rund he has conceded RH and LH. The. We have to go to SR.

If Swann and Bresnan are bowling to Boon the database really is screwed up... or the Aussies have taken recalling veterans one step further!

beamer wrote:If Swann and Bresnan are bowling to Boon the database really is screwed up... or the Aussies have taken recalling veterans one step further!

Swann probably bowled to Boon at some stage here:
link

PP would have liked that match, Harmison, Devon Malcolm and Franklyn Rose all in the same match. FAST.

Good find; that's a career crossover I would not have guessed at. It's amazing to think just how long Swann was around before being called up, or even recognised as a prospect by anyone other than Monkey.

lardbucket wrote:Good find; that's a career crossover I would not have guessed at. It's amazing to think just how long Swann was around before being called up, or even recognised as a prospect by anyone other than Monkey.

He went on a Test tour in '99/'00 I think it was, made a twat of himself by most accounts and had to wait another 8 or 9 years for his debut.

beamer wrote:

lardbucket wrote:Good find; that's a career crossover I would not have guessed at. It's amazing to think just how long Swann was around before being called up, or even recognised as a prospect by anyone other than Monkey.

He went on a Test tour in '99/'00 I think it was, made a twat of himself by most accounts and had to wait another 8 or 9 years for his debut.

Graeme Swann - The Breaks Are Off wrote:‘I’d spent it chatting to a member of an air crew and the golfer Ian Woosnam, who was playing in a tournament in South Africa.

Three sheets to the wind, Woosie was demonstrating his swing using a bar stool instead of a golf club.

‘It had been hours since I’d seen Goughie, although I’d had a chortle before he went off for dinner when one girl in the bar told him, “You look like a fat Darren Gough.”

‘However, I was very much aware of his presence around two in the morning when I went to the gents. At this point, Goughie emerged from nowhere and, as I stood at the urinal, punched me in the mouth.

‘Because of my state of inebriation, rather like in a comedy film, I fell backwards. Problem was I had not stopping urinating.

‘I asked him, “What did you do that for?’ But he strode off and left me there, wet jeans, fat lip and all.

‘Some of the other lads said something like that was bound to happen sooner or later because I’d wound up people too much. But not on this occasion.

‘To this day, I’m not sure what Gough’s problem was or what I did to deserve being cracked.’

Fun times.