Re: Melbourne Cup

by WideWally Mon 03 Nov 2008, 10:24

All three of O'Brien's runners have the same owners.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 10:35

Yep - my bad - just seen that WW - thanks ...

Septimus is owned outright by Derrick Smith ...
the other two he has part shares in ... missed that.

So ... are pacemakers frowned upon in Aus - because O'Brien uses them liberally over here.
Was fined heavily once a couple of years back by the Ascot stewards for having a pacemaker who clearly wasn't bred for the distance - tailed off something like 40 lengths last and in distress!
But he continues to use them ...

by Para Batsman Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:08

Merlin wrote:Yep - my bad - just seen that WW - thanks ...

Septimus is owned outright by Derrick Smith ...
the other two he has part shares in ... missed that.

So ... are pacemakers frowned upon in Aus - because O'Brien uses them liberally over here.
Was fined heavily once a couple of years back by the Ascot stewards for having a pacemaker who clearly wasn't bred for the distance - tailed off something like 40 lengths last and in distress!
But he continues to use them ...

Melbourne Cups used to be placed by 12 furlong horses who run out of puff in the straight allowing Hackers like Kiwi and other lightly weighted hackers like Vintage crop to have the last shot.
Since then genuine two milers from OS have dominated.

Put VC in tomorrows race and he would struggle to run top 10 the pace will be held throughout the whole race by genuine two milers.

by Para Batsman Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:15

Merlin wrote:Of the European entries :

Septimus might be all the rage, but lumping top weight over 2 miles doesn't excite.
Johnny Murtagh however is riding at the top of his game right now.

Alessandro Volta at 40/1 seems a very tasty each way wager. carrying 7.13, he's a battle hardened 3 yo who did well in decent fields in both the Epsom and Irish Derby's and the GP de Paris over at Longchamp. First time over 2M however ... but he is bred to stay.

It's unlikely Septimus will have a pacemaker. Although trained by O'Brien, his other two in the race are owned by Magnier/Tabor, and those guys don't generally offer their nags out to front run for another owner regardless of having the same trainer.
Alessandro Volta might however pacemake for Honolulu.... but IMO he's better than Honolulu

Of the two Cumani horses, Mad Rush has been more consistent in better company than Bauer ...

Topweight at 58.5 is a joke for this horse . Top weight is just a word.

Weld rated him at 62 kgs. Nothing in this race has won over a distance carrying weight let alone 3200.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:17

VC was a brilliant distance racehorse who won several Group 1 races over here with big weights onboard before taking a Melbourne Cup (had a bad journey across to Oz AND hadn't raced for 7 weeks prior to the Cup) ... not a bad feat!
I don't for one moment agree with your belief that he'd "struggle" against this lot were he at the peak of his form.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:18

Para Batsman wrote:

Topweight at 58.5 is a joke for this horse . Top weight is just a word.

Weld rated him at 62 kgs. Nothing in this race has won over a distance carrying weight let alone 3200.

What's Dermot Weld got to do with Septimus?

by Para Batsman Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:19

Merlin wrote:VC was a brilliant distance racehorse who won several Group 1 races over here with big weights onboard before taking a Melbourne Cup (had a bad journey across to Oz AND hadn't raced for 7 weeks prior to the Cup) ... not a bad feat!
I don't for one moment agree with your belief that he'd "struggle" against this lot were he at the peak of his form.

George Moore said he was a 5 mile hacker.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:21

FFS

by Bradman Mon 03 Nov 2008, 12:30

If he had the same weight and form coming into any MC in the last 150 years I'd back VC. That weighting was almost a licence to rob banks.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 18:25

Okay - disclosure here too ...

Tenner each way each Alessandro Volta (33's and backed down from 40's here) and Zipping (16's - on the advice of JGK and Brads) with a fiver f/c and t/c mix with Septimus and Mad Rush.

Must be crazy ... but what the hell !! shrug

by Para Batsman Mon 03 Nov 2008, 21:21

Merlin wrote:
Para Batsman wrote:

Topweight at 58.5 is a joke for this horse . Top weight is just a word.

Weld rated him at 62 kgs. Nothing in this race has won over a distance carrying weight let alone 3200.

What's Dermot Weld got to do with Septimus?

Dermot was simply saying Septimus was underhandicapped.

QUOTE from the jockey after Septimus was declared a runner yesterday.

--------------------------------------

Behind him is the Irish stayer, Septimus, who had been the shortest priced horse earlier in the week but drifted after connections threatened to scratch him if the Flemington track was too firm.

He was confirmed to run yesterday afternoon and his jockey, Johnny Murtagh, could not resist an opportunity to have a go at the locals.

"You know the Australians think they're the best in the world so to come down here and beat them in their backyard, I'm really looking forward to it," he said.

---------------------------------------------

My new worry is Septimus has only raced in small fields and the Cup is a hectic race.

Nom De Jour is my other pick he's a tough horse.

by Merlin Mon 03 Nov 2008, 23:27

Murtagh said something similar 8 days ago before the Breeders Cup - about beating the Yanks in their own back yard on Duke of Marmalade.... take no notice of the hype, but he is a 'big occasion' jock.
Anyway, that didn't happen as a Brit horse Ravens Pass won the race with the O'Brien trained Henrythenavigator coming second!

The Racing Channel on Sky here are covering the entire race card, huzzah!
I notice Septimus has drifted to $8.50 (Mad Rush at $4.50) .. with the Oz racing experts on Ch Seven saying to lump on at those odds!

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 00:40

Did you get a name of that Oz racing expert?

Most of them are Ch Seven personalities who know farque all

by JGK Tue 04 Nov 2008, 01:09

Merlin wrote:Okay - disclosure here too ...

Tenner each way each Alessandro Volta (33's and backed down from 40's here) and Zipping (16's - on the advice of JGK and Brads) with a fiver f/c and t/c mix with Septimus and Mad Rush.

Must be crazy ... but what the hell !!

You can get 40s on Volta at the moment in Oz.

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 01:11

Rebecca Twigley should just take modelling jobs where she doesnt have to speak ...

by Para Batsman Tue 04 Nov 2008, 01:34

Simon Marshall went for Septimus to street them and mentioned a rehearsal held by O'Briens three horses held in the last few days. Septimus won in a canter. Then they showed the Irish Ledger with Septimus winning by 13 lengths going away.

Someone in the papers said he couldn't sprint fast enough to finish off the Cup. What a joke.

Freedman tossed up between Mad Rush and Septimus saying the doubt was the wind drying out the track on Septimus.

by Paul Keating Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:09

Viewed
Bauer
then ??

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:09

Viewed by a bee's foreskin

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:10

C'est La Guerre third

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:11

12th win for Bart

by Nath Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:16

these Melb Cup favourites Rolling Eyes

Bunch of duds!

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:26

embee wrote:

My tips

Profound Beauty...5th
Bauer...2nd
Master OReilly...4th
Yellowstone ...scratched
Mad Rush...????

Almost

by Paul Keating Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:38

MB

Do you have a link that has details of where each horse came?

I tried but nothing is working for me.

Thanks

by embee Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:41

not yet , ponts

Honolulu was last

by Paul Keating Tue 04 Nov 2008, 04:43

cheers

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