Re: The Australian Federal Election 2010 Thread (III)

[Allan D]

Newspoll was the more accurate of the 2 in its final poll last time round giving the ALP a 52% share whilst Nielsen gave them a 57% share. Of course ACN may have corrected any sampling errors since then but they still look to have an ALP bias:

Link

[Paul Keating]

and you do realise that newspoll have a conservative bias?

in any case if you average out all polls taken by the five leading polling companies this week then labor is ahead

[Paul Keating]

and allan d, whilst you are at it. Explain newspoll in the 2004 election. It wasn't even close.

[JGK]

Let it go Ponts - the good guys are gone.

[Paul Keating]

newspoll had it 50-50 on polling day in 2004; howard went on to win 53-47

[Allan D]

You pays your money and you takes your choice. Only one poll matters and that's tomorrow.

[Allan D]

newspoll had it 50-50 on polling day in 2004; howard went on to win 53-47

So Newspoll has a conservative bias?

[skully]

newspoll had it 50-50 on polling day in 2004; howard went on to win 53-47

It'd be grouse if that occurence repeated itself. Newspoll this morning has a gnat's dick in it. Labor 50.2/Coalition 49.8 2PP, with Coalition 8 points clear on Primary votes.

[skully]

And I note Big Red continued her desperate begging this morning on Sky, again harping over and over about the risk of Abbott becoming the next PM. I'm almost surprised she didn't say "when Abbott wins tonight, we're all farked".

She was asked a to sum up in a single word the coming day and gave a three paragraph answer with "risk" mentioned a couple of times more. FFS.

[Henry]

Sky is having a shocker with their coverage of the big day so far. Reporters running off during the middle of studio crosses, pictures freezing, and no one on the phone lines at the right time.

[Allan D]

And I note Big Red continued her desperate begging this morning on Sky, again harping over and over about the risk of Abbott becoming the next PM. I'm almost surprised she didn't say "when Abbott wins tonight, we're all farked".

She was asked a to sum up in a single word the coming day and gave a three paragraph answer with "risk" mentioned a couple of times more. FFS.

She appears to be copying the Broon playbook. Has anyone told her he lost?

[Nath]

hopefully the only Ranga inhabiting my tv after today will be Ronald McDonald

[skully]

Huzzah, another Tory comes out of the woodwork!!

[Bradman]

on lateline tonight the latest polls to be published tomorrow are as follows

newspoll 50-50

ac nielsen 52-48 to labor

does anyone know which polling company has been most successful in the past?

Nielsen called the last four elections correctly, the only one to do that. There sampling is lower and a different methodology.

[skully]

So how are you gonna celebrate tonight, qmy?

[Bradman]

Flew into Rocky today to go in a fishing comp tomorrow. I'm not a fisherman's arsehole but there are worse ways to spend a day and a night sucking beers on a yacht and it's for a good cause. So flying to one of the outlying islands this arvo and jumping on the boat to my mates "anyone can catch fish here qmy' spot.

He calims he can get reception but I've got my doubts but I guess the ABC will do a decent job on the radio.

They might even call it first they're better resourced for this thing, via the regional network than the TV stations.

Had a chat to some polling workers in my own electorate and capricornia. They're both extremely to ultra safe but all the workers said they thought the turnout was down.

Don't know what to read into that.

And you? A bottle of champers on one side and a bottle of arsenic on the other.

[skully]

Nothing in the frig special as I don't expect to be celebrating. Might open a cheeky red if the Coalition squeaks home - which I doubt.

[Hass]

It's a cliche, but today is the poll that counts.

Newspoll, AC Nielsen and others are all just taking a stab at the two-party preferred. They actually have no idea what it will be.

Th 2PP will come down to how many potential Greens voters switch back to Labor and how many Greens voters preference Labor. Even then we've still got no idea who'll win because the Libs could come out ahead in the marginals.

[Bradman]

And some of those marginals have local issues that may defy the national swing either way.

[Zat]

Have missing persons found Peter Garrett yet?

He's having a beer with Warren Truss.

Hopefully the pub where that happened was hit by terrorists at the time.

[Zat]

FFS, he drinks light beer shandy and now doesn't even understand cricket:

Mr Abbott likened the race to a cricket match. ''It's as if there's five minutes to go in a test match, the scores are level and we've got to make sure we win.''

Tony - if you are batting and the scores are tied you can't lose.

Farkwit.

Now you're clutchin' like Big Red, JGK. I don't recall you ever saying "LJH may be a qunt but at least he loves his cricket".

I'm pretty sure that comments like that have been made in this place in the past. Probably in the 'ICC VP hijacked by subi qunts' threads.

[skully]

Probably.

[Bradman]

i wonder if the deaths of those two diggers a couple of hours might have an effect onme way or the other.

[skully]

Sad news, qmy, but can't really see it having an effect one way or t'other.

[JGK]

Still, it puts the batts v unwinnable wars scorecard well in the Coalitions favour.

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