Re: The Australian Federal Election 2010 Thread (III)

[Bradman]

She makes no decision - if noone holds a majority on the floor - back we go.

Not true.

The GG has the power to refuse a request for another election. She could instead ask, say, Malcolm Turnbull to see if he is capable of forming a government.

Whether he could or not is a different matter, but the GG certainly has the power to explore other options.

If the GG thought it wise she could remove Gillard's commission and appoint Tony Windsor Prime Minister. It would then be up to the House to either follow the G-G's lead and approve Windsor's governent or vote it down via a motion of no confidence.

I'm not saying that's even on the radar of likely scenarios, but the GG does have the power to force the issue if she thinks it is in the best interests of the country to avoid another election straight away.

The Governor-General's reserve powers are real and should not be dismissed lightly (as many fools did in 1975).

The reserve powers exist but their scope is debated, and some of the debatable powers are the discretion to appoint a prime minister at his/her own discretion and;

the power to dismiss a PM where supply is refused and he/she refuses to call an election.

As a piece of trivia Paul Kelly always claimed that Whitlam, instead of eating a steak at the lodge should have waited for Fraser to give the word to pass the supply bills and once done called an immediate vote of no confidence, waltzed back to Yarralumla and said I've got supply.

Not sure on Paul's constitutional law qualifications but suppose he'd picked enough up over the years.

[JGK]

So it looks like the 3 most marginal seats in the country will be Coalition seats - Hasluck, Boothby and Dunkley. And possibly a 4th with Brisbane.

[JGK]

This is what seems to have happnened in Dunkley:

Another seat to watch is Dunkley, in Melbourne's south, which was this afternoon moved to the AEC's "close" list - along with Hasluck - after 200 votes were discovered in the wrong party's pile.

The discovery of the error during fresh scrutiny of the ballot papers moved ALP challenger Helen Constas to within 616 votes of incumbent Liberal MP Bruce Billson.

[JGK]

Further update on Boothby - looks like the Liberal will hold on by his scrot...


Two Candidate Preferred
Polling Places Returned: 51 of 51 Turnout: 78.87% Candidate Party Votes This Election (%) Last Election (%) Swing (%)
DIGANCE, Annabel Australian Labor Party 36,603 49.56 47.07 +2.49
SOUTHCOTT, Andrew Liberal 37,260 50.44 52.93 -2.49

[JGK]

Hasluck updated again - still 382 in favour of the Lib.

[Zat]

On election night, George Brandis claimed on the ABC that the Coalition were the choice of Government because they had the 2PP vote and the most seats.

So, if the ALP has the 2PP, and the seats are level..?

[Paul Keating]

The Coalition will then claim they won on primary votes

[Paul Keating]

The Coalition contradict themselves.

They claimed that the rules of the Westminster system meant they should form minority government because they had the most seats.

But then they disregard the Westminster system and tell the people of Australia a lie that Kevin Rudd was elected by the people of Australia, when in reality it was only Rudd's electorate and the members of the Labor party that made him PM.

[JGK]

On election night, George Brandis claimed on the ABC that the Coalition were the choice of Government because they had the 2PP vote and the most seats.

So, if the ALP has the 2PP, and the seats are level..?

Have to say Antony Green wasn't at his best on Saturday. I think the high Green vote stuffed up his models because he called Denison pretty early and persisted all night with the LNP having the 2PP lead when in reality they never did.

[skully]

Antony Green is a pompous qunt.

[Hass]

Antony Green is a pompous qunt.

He's pretty down to earth in person actually.

[Zat]

Sky News report http://skynews.com.au/election2010/article.aspx?id=503494&articleID= :

Independent NSW MP Tony Windsor says he got rid of 'two cancers' when he gave up smoking and left the Nationals in the 1980s.

However, Mr Windsor also says he can work with anybody.

He refused on Monday to give a clear indication of whether he would align himself with Labor or the coalition to form government.

'There's a way to go yet and I'd ask people to breathe in,' he told Sky News.

'There's a process at work, the world won't come to an end and we'll make sure there's good governance hopefully for longer than a short period and hopefully for three years.'

Mr Windsor said he can't make a decision until the situation becomes clearer.

'I can't because I don't know what kind of a piece of plasticine I'm dealing with,' he said.

'I could be one of six people making a decision about two or three spots and until we know which spots they are and where a number of people are going, we can't really make a decision.

'If I went to one side at the moment and the other side gets in, what have I done to my people for the next term of the parliament?' he added.

'As someone might say, I might be silly but I'm not stupid.

'We can make this work. We've had a little bit of crisis in recent years so let's try it a different way and I think we'll find that maybe it will be a better way.'

Mr Windsor denied his former membership of the Nationals would sway him towards the coalition, and he was scathing of Nationals senator Barnaby Joyce.

'I've never been in parliament as a National, I gave up smoking about the same time (and) I've rid myself of two cancers,' he said.

'So I wouldn't use that in terms of just because I was a member of the National party right back then, that that means anything now.'

Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce was 'stupid' to urge the candidates to move quickly, he said.

'I won't be dealing with him, I don't like the guy,' he said.

'The way in which he was trying to give gratuitous advice in terms of a hung parliament (on Saturday), when he had the balance of power in the Senate (in 2005) and then sold the country out on the sale of Telstra was an indication of just where he stands in terms of country issues.'

Mr Windsor said he would be meeting with the other independent MPs Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter in Canberra on Monday or Tuesday to discuss their preferences.

The implementation of the National Broadband Network remained a big campaign issue for him, but he didn't trust either party, Mr Windsor said.

'Both sides of government have got to have a really close look at getting it right,' he said, adding Labor's policy was 'written on the back of a cigarette paper'.

'(But) it's a better option than the coalition's, no doubt about that,' he said.

[Zat]

And according to Sky...

Denison - ALP leads and is likely to win.
Hasluck, Dunkley, Boothby - Coalition leads, but the gap closing.

ABC is saying the same, but has Brisbane Coalition in front but the gap closing.

[skully]

Antony Green is a pompous qunt.

He's pretty down to earth in person actually.

Having never met him, I can only make judgment on what I see on Election Night specials. I stand by my comment.

[JGK]

Independent NSW MP Tony Windsor says he got rid of 'two cancers' when he gave up smoking and left the Nationals in the 1980s.

Ouch!

[JGK]

Looks like Antony Green might have been right about Denison:

Two Candidate Preferred
Polling Places Returned: 28 of 56 Turnout: 46.49% Candidate Party Votes This Election (%) Last Election (%) Swing (%)
WILKIE, Andrew Independent 15,735 49.36 0.00 +49.36
JACKSON, Jonathan Australian Labor Party 16,143 50.64 0.00 +50.64

[skully]

Is the website just slow in updating or do the AEC counters never sleep?

[JGK]

could be both. You can imagine the pressure they are under to get things sorted.

Looking at Denison - it would be bizarre is the ALP lost becuase he has over 48% of the primary vote. That is, for him to lose, about 95% of preferences would need to flow to Wilkie.

[skully]

Aye. Sometimes I think they should low the first past the post mark from 50% to 45%. It'd clear up a sh!tload of uncertainty in some seats.

[JGK]

Sorry scrap that - the AEC website has updated again. The ALP guy only get 36% of the primary so this may well still be down to the wire.

[JGK]

Apparently the coalition have blown out in the betting after today's counts. Might be time to double up given that ALP looks like ending up on 72.

[skully]

My gut feel still says the Indies will side with Big Red, particularly given the Green situation in the Senate.

Fark it.

Still, I can't see my life changing massively with a minority ALP govt in power.

[JGK]

That's the spirit.

[skully]

Meh, they've already farked me by dropping the amount I can contribute to super. And I fear they could fark everyone with an ETS tax. I guess we shall see.

[G.Wood]

Has anyone mentioned that the Mad Monk has the advantage because he has 3 daughters of varying degrees of non-ugliness who can be offered up as bribes to the 3 country indies?

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