The UK General Election Thread (II)

[lardbucket]

GB had an increasingly haunted look last night as he banged on unconvincingly with his talking points in a bid to persuade voters that withdrawing child tax credits from those earning £50,000+ would somehow contribute to child poverty (at one point he even bizarrely said, although this was not picked up by the other two, obsessed with their own talking points, that "child tax credits are paid to children", err, no, Gordon, they're paid to parents). He looked like a wounded stag knowing its days are numbered and his closing statement began to sound more like a concession speech with "but it's your choice" followed by his creepy rictus grin.

He knows that the ordure will fall on him in the post-election introspection within the Labour Party and he has, indeed, brought himself and his party to this point through his personal flaws, his inability to connect with the electorate, his rivalry with Blair which limited much of what Labour might have achieved but above all his overweening pride and vaulting ambition.

Last night we saw Macbeth watching Birnam Wood come to Dunsinane with Malcolm and Macduff beside him. However the Labour Party was not blameless either as it levered out Blair and gave Broon an unopposed succession and chose not to act in the frequent opportunities that presented themselves to remove him after it was abundantly clear he had become an electoral liability. The Labour Cabinet have behaved towards Broon in much the same way as the Wehrmacht High Command did towards Hitler after 1941, knowing they were being led to disaster but substituting a cringing compliance instead of overt resistance.

After last night's debate one thing, at least, is certain, that Clegg could not sustain Brown, or even Labour generally, in power without risking electoral suicide and all the gains the Lib Dems have made in the campaign so far. The likeliest outcomes seem to be either a narrow Conservative majority or a Conservative minority government.

Allan, that's unkind to merlo and his ilk

[Allan D]

There are times when you feel like giving yourself a good kicking:

[Merlin]

Like two dogs shimmying upto their lamposts ... whilst Cameroon holds it in with pained look!

[Allan D]

Obviously the BBC were a little too generous with their hospitality beforehand (at our expense, of course!).

[Basil]

There are times when you feel like giving yourself a good kicking:

You put your left leg in, left leg out, in out, in out, shake it all about, you do the okey cokey and you turn around, that's what it's all about................

[Basil]

YouGov/Sun Poll:

Tories 34%
Labour 28%
Lib Dems 28%

[JKLever]

YouGov/Sun Poll:

Tories 34%
Labour 28%
Lib Dems 28%

And still the Tories can't seem to put daylight between the rest - that result leaves Labour with 1 more seat than the Tories!

[Basil]

The Guardian declares its hand for the Lib Dems.

[JKLever]

The Guardian declares its hand for the Lib Dems.

fluffy pinko liberal rag supports fluffy pinko sandal wearing party shocker!

[Guest]

Brown is getting annihilated by Paxman...

[Basil]

Sky reckons the Sunday Telegraph will support the Tories. File that under "No shit, Sherlock!"

[Allan D]

YouGov/Sun Poll:

Tories 34%
Labour 28%
Lib Dems 28%

And still the Tories can't seem to put daylight between the rest - that result leaves Labour with 1 more seat than the Tories!

Only if there is an even swing across the country. Polls also show a bigger Tory swing in marginal seats and the Lib Dems doing better in Labour-held seats. Labour had an overall majority of 65 at the last election with only a 36% share of the national vote. Seats not vote share determine the outcome of UK elections.

[Allan D]

Sky reckons the Sunday Telegraph will support the Tories. File that under "No shit, Sherlock!"

Alongside:

Catholic Herald Welcomes Pope's Visit

[Basil]

Labour and Tories have been campaigning in what might be thought to be safe Labour seats. I wonder if there own private polling is telling them that the Lib Dem surge is bringing more and more seats into play.

[LeFromage]

Curious to see the impact of the yoof vote. Suspect those that can be arsed voting will be mostly lining up behind the Libs.

The yoof certainly help Labour and their "we're so cool, look at us having tea with Noel Gallagher" shtick to a crushing win in 1997.

[Allan D]

Blair invited the Gallaghers for drinks after he got into No.10. Also turnout dropped by 6% compared to the previous election in '92 which kept John Major in No.10. The turnout of 71.4% in 1997 was the lowest turnout in a UK General Election since 1935 (although of course that dubious record was broken by the 59.4% turnout in 2001 - the lowest since 1918):

Geeral Election Turnout 1945-2005

I see the website MumsNet have announced the outcome of their poll of users as follows:

Lib Dems 46% Lab 26% Cons 22%.

No joy for Gordon among the young mums, then.

[Basil]

Harris Poll for the Daily Mail:

Tories 33%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 32%

[JKLever]

Harris Poll for the Daily Mail:

Tories 33%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 32%

Tories 33-34% against a desperate government that's been at the helm for 13 years is absolutely pathetic

[JKLever]

I'm starting to get the impression that each party loathes the other so much and they won't wanted to be tainted with each other in a coalition that this election will be a minority government.

[beamer]

I'm starting to get the impression that each party loathes the other so much and they won't wanted to be tainted with each other in a coalition that this election will be a minority government.

If that's the case though there will be another election before the end of the year, which I'm not sure would win any of them much favour with the public... it has to be in their interests to come to some sort of workable arrangement, or "others" will surely get a big boost next time around.

[JKLever]

The internal fight to be next leader has already begun.

Got to be between David Millipede and Alan ' I like expelling our autistic people to the US' Johnson.

I've seen some mention Ed Balls. FFS, really? Got the charisma of a Chris Tavare

[Zat]

Someone with the surname Balls could never be a serious candidate, surely.

That would be like when the Liberal Party in Australia was looking like having Tony Abbott and Peter Costello as a leadership team...

[Allan D]

The internal fight to be next leader has already begun.

Got to be between David Millipede and Alan ' I like expelling our autistic peole to the US' Johnson.

I've seen some mention Ed Balls. FFS, really? Got the charisma of a Chris Tavare

Plus the fact that the Tories are targetting Balls' seat of Morley & Outwood (notional swing required 7.3%).

Harris poll in tomorrow's Mail:

CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2)

At this rate Clegg could be next Leader of the Opposition.

[JKLever]

Even 8% ahead of Labour they're still behind in seats...

[Allan D]

Even 8% ahead of Labour they're still behind in seats...

9% when I was at school.

Assumes Lib Dems gain more seats from the Tories than they do from Labour. Polls of target seats not showing that.

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