Not the greatest person thread. Has election stuff - Hass

[Mick Sawyer]

Thoughtfull me has moved out the way of those concerned with thread purity.

Hass - you are 100% correct in terms of Keating now or at any time in the past being able to mass market his vision.

My simple, cheeky object was just to bang an old drum. Enough of the punters just stopped giving the rodent credit for our economic prosperity and some, maybe just enough realised who poured the foundations.

I honestly don't think it was about work choices.

I think that over the last election or three enough people happily overlooked Iraq, David Hicks, Tampa & the seafaring kiddies, Howard's inate racism, his genuine lack of concern for future generations and climate change in favour of company dividends & tax cheques now blah, blah ........ but now that interest rates have started to bite (when he said they wouldn't) they returned to think about some of those things and decided to gun him.

[Hass]

That's a very fair point Mick.

I think all of those things played their part.

I just don't think enough people would have cared about them had they not been woken up by Workchoices. That was the first thing that broke Howard's trust with the so-called 'battlers'.

Interest rates probably helped wake a few more people up as well.

[embee]

"My simple, cheeky object was just to bang an old drum. Enough of the punters just stopped giving the rodent credit for our economic prosperity and some, maybe just enough realised who poured the foundations."

Keating was the engineer who built the economy ...Costello was the technician who got it running smoothly ....Swan is probably just a lesser skilled technician ....Turnbull is probably the next engineer if he gets a chance (from either the voters or the Libs )

[Mick Sawyer]

Hmmmmmmmm - seriously, I don't think Howard's battlers were waitresses that now work more hours with less breaks for less money. I think his battlers were the tradies (not too bothered by WorkChoices) whose parents voted ALP who were seduced into believing their $100k income was due to the rodent.

[embee]

"tradies "

Cubbies is the correct terminology ....Cashed Up Bogans

[Mick Sawyer]

"Turnbull is probably the next engineer if he gets a chance (from either the voters or the Libs )"

Mate - I'm seriously looking forward to what he has to say. He has the ability & the opportunity to raise the debate - let's hope he escapes the standard, party issued, frontal lobotomy.

[Mick Sawyer]

"tradies "

Cubbies is the correct terminology ....Cashed Up Bogans

Perfect understanding.

[embee]

"Turnbull is probably the next engineer if he gets a chance (from either the voters or the Libs )"

Mate - I'm seriously looking forward to what he has to say. He has the ability & the opportunity to raise the debate - let's hope he escapes the standard, party issued, frontal lobotomy.

Hopefully Nelson lets him fully loose in opposition Treasury ....will see both Swan and Costello squirm ...and is Nelson's best chance to be PM .

[Mick Sawyer]

"Turnbull is probably the next engineer if he gets a chance (from either the voters or the Libs )"

Mate - I'm seriously looking forward to what he has to say. He has the ability & the opportunity to raise the debate - let's hope he escapes the standard, party issued, frontal lobotomy.

Hopefully Nelson lets him fully loose in opposition Treasury ....will see both Swan and Costello squirm ...and is Nelson's best chance to be PM .

aye, 'cept the Nelson for PM bit - not a snowflakes in purgatory - FFS he pissed off 3 sheilas who at some stage were impressed enough to bed & wed him. The country won't cop him for long enough.

[Paul Keating]

So Hass,

Put aside his inability to sell his message.

Did you like what he had install for this country's culture and future?

Or were you totally against the whole Asian intergration, republic and reconciliation thingymybob stuff???

[embee]

It wasn't said with the desire for Nelson to be PM ...just that if he wants to be that's his best chance (rather than waiting for us to get sick of hearing "working families" before Abbott , Turnbull and/or Costello knife him)

[Fred Nerk]

Workchoices might have been the turning point. It reminded people that Howard's political judgement might not always be unassailable.

It readmitted the possibility that those whinging ABC/Fairfax leftie wankers may sometimes be right (insert blind squirrel and acorn analogy here if you like) and no, mate, she won't be right, not this time, and spin-doctoring and guilt-tripping and wedging and paranoia aren't going to do it any more and what else has he got?

Against that momentum his attacks on the 'Trade Union Thugs' (outdated) and the States (hypocritical) were a colossal waste of time and effort (and money) and about as likely to wash as Bob Geldof.

[Hass]

Hmmmmmmmm - seriously, I don't think Howard's battlers were waitresses that now work more hours with less breaks for less money. I think his battlers were the tradies (not too bothered by WorkChoices) whose parents voted ALP who were seduced into believing their $100k income was due to the rodent.

Mick. I found that a lot of people who were angered by Worckchoices weren't necessarily those in the firing line.

These were tradies and the like who'd voted for Howard before but thought he'd gone too far. 'What about the kids?' they'd say.

Obviously it also annoyed a lot of people who were going to be directly affected.

Howard's 'battlers' was always a bit overplayed in the first place mind you. If you look at the seats in Western Sydney throughout the Howard era they were overwhelmingly red.

Cheers.

[ten years after]

There's a bit too much talk about 'people' and 'Australia' when analysing elections as if there is ever a massive movement one way or the other.

The swing required to turn a comfortable Liberal majority to a comfortable Labor majority was 6% of the voting population. The vast majority of voters always stick to one party. The reasons for one side or the other winning depend upon what catches the attention of a few hundred thousand voters.

The 'people of Australia' have no more turned their back on the Coalition now than on the Labor party last time. Just remember how completely Labor was written off 3 years ago or the Liberals under Downer. It just doesn't work that way.

This is why irrelevancies as 'children overboard' or a false perception of what one party or the other has done to interest rates can have such a large impact.

[Leo]

I honestly think that when you are trying to figure out what is 'moving' voters, you should look at the parties rhetoric. Their focus groups tell them pretty well what is shifting people around.

Labor didn't talk that much about IR during the campaign. Rudd's key refrains were 'the future', 'new leadership', and 'in touch with working families'. WorkChoices may have contributed partly to the third element (Howard appearing out of touch), but overwhelmingly this election was decided by the age of the government.

I also think the last-minute narrowing probably had something to do with the 'right direction', 'government has done a good job' lines Howard started spruiking right at the end. I wonder if in hindsight they wished they'd tried 'The Right Direction' as the slogan originally rather than 'Go For Growth'.

[Mick Sawyer]

Hmmmmmmmm - seriously, I don't think Howard's battlers were waitresses that now work more hours with less breaks for less money. I think his battlers were the tradies (not too bothered by WorkChoices) whose parents voted ALP who were seduced into believing their $100k income was due to the rodent.

Mick. I found that a lot of people who were angered by Worckchoices weren't necessarily those in the firing line.

These were tradies and the like who'd voted for Howard before but thought he'd gone too far. 'What about the kids?' they'd say.

Obviously it also annoyed a lot of people who were going to be directly affected.

Howard's 'battlers' was always a bit overplayed in the first place mind you. If you look at the seats in Western Sydney throughout the Howard era they were overwhelmingly red.

Cheers.

I suspect that you've spoken to lots of people about their thoughts and key decision markers. I'm therefore happy to accept your view that WorkChoices was another significant reason to turn back to the light.

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