So, forum financial gurus...
+18
Invader Zim
G.Wood
taipan
Red
embee
bodyline
horace
lardbucket
beamer
Basil
Henry
Growler
Batman
Mick Sawyer
Big Dog
JGK
Paul Keating
skully
22 posters
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Hehehe, nice. How much of the freebies did you get from the recent budget?
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Nada.
Unlike the previous LNP Government, this one apparently doesn't believe that investment bankers who live in Mosman are battlers. Qunts.
Unlike the previous LNP Government, this one apparently doesn't believe that investment bankers who live in Mosman are battlers. Qunts.
JGK- Number of posts : 41790
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Well, I am surprised. I assumed you would've reduced your taxable income sufficiently by whatever dodgy means open to Bankers to get both Family Benefits Part A and B and taken what most pinkos believe is their god-given right, free money from the government.
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
It's a bit harder these days because just about everything gets included as "income" for FT purposes.
Although I do have a plan for next year.
Although I do have a plan for next year.
JGK- Number of posts : 41790
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skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
skully wrote:Er, I am doing that in spades, MrK. I have a very healthy nest egg in the Chief's name to minimise tax payable on its earning. This will be used to supplement my allocated pension income post-55, which will be kept at a low enough level to avoid tax. Because of my age (born before 1964) I get a 15% discount on my tax between 55 and 60, meaning I can take about $50K in annual allocated pension tax free.
I am still unsure on the status of salary-sacrificed cash above the $25K Super contributions limit next financial year. It will be taxed at the full nearly 50% but is it counted in your taxable income or not?
If it is, I may as well just save the money post tax outside my Super in the Chief's name, for as long as her name exists. If it is not included as part of my taxable income (and I currently assume it wouldn't be) then while I still lose 50% of the over the $25K contributions to tax, my taxable income stays lower and avoids things like means testing of the Health Fund rebate, future flood levies, Disability Fund levies etc etc.
Mick seems to indicate that Super contributions salary sacrificed about the $25K concessional limit are clearly not part of my taxable income, but I just want to make sure before making decisions about what to do with the spare $25K I will have next Fin. Yr.
It seems a simple, even dumb question, but can someone give me a 100% clear answer??
Excess contributions will be taxed but do not form part of your taxable income. However, (this is really feckin important) where an individual has exceeded their concessional (e.g. SGC, salary sacrifice) contributions cap, the excess amount counts towards the non-concessional cap. That is, contributions tipped in from after tax income - the cap is $150k p.a. or up to $450k in a 3 year period. If the individual has already contributed up to their non-concessional cap in a particular year, this may result in the individual also exceeding their non-concessional cap.
Any excess non-concessional contributions are subject to a penalty tax rate of 46.5 per cent. Where a contribution exceeds both caps, the total penalty tax will be up to 93 per cent (15 per cent + 31.5 per cent + 46.5 per cent).
Making excess contributions can be beneficial but you really need to do some careful analysis before deliberately embarking. For the coming year taxable income in the $37k to $80k range has a MTR of 32.5%. That might not be a bad place to earn the additional income.
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
skully, I forgot to add that your wife would have her own non concessional cap.
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Many thanks, Mick. I assumed this was logically the case, but have really struggled to get a straight answer. Even my Super Fund couldn't answer it. Perhaps I wasn't clear how I asked the question.Mick Sawyer wrote:skully wrote:Er, I am doing that in spades, MrK. I have a very healthy nest egg in the Chief's name to minimise tax payable on its earning. This will be used to supplement my allocated pension income post-55, which will be kept at a low enough level to avoid tax. Because of my age (born before 1964) I get a 15% discount on my tax between 55 and 60, meaning I can take about $50K in annual allocated pension tax free.
I am still unsure on the status of salary-sacrificed cash above the $25K Super contributions limit next financial year. It will be taxed at the full nearly 50% but is it counted in your taxable income or not?
If it is, I may as well just save the money post tax outside my Super in the Chief's name, for as long as her name exists. If it is not included as part of my taxable income (and I currently assume it wouldn't be) then while I still lose 50% of the over the $25K contributions to tax, my taxable income stays lower and avoids things like means testing of the Health Fund rebate, future flood levies, Disability Fund levies etc etc.
Mick seems to indicate that Super contributions salary sacrificed about the $25K concessional limit are clearly not part of my taxable income, but I just want to make sure before making decisions about what to do with the spare $25K I will have next Fin. Yr.
It seems a simple, even dumb question, but can someone give me a 100% clear answer??
Excess contributions will be taxed but do not form part of your taxable income. However, (this is really feckin important) where an individual has exceeded their concessional (e.g. SGC, salary sacrifice) contributions cap, the excess amount counts towards the non-concessional cap. That is, contributions tipped in from after tax income - the cap is $150k p.a. or up to $450k in a 3 year period. If the individual has already contributed up to their non-concessional cap in a particular year, this may result in the individual also exceeding their non-concessional cap.
Any excess non-concessional contributions are subject to a penalty tax rate of 46.5 per cent. Where a contribution exceeds both caps, the total penalty tax will be up to 93 per cent (15 per cent + 31.5 per cent + 46.5 per cent).
Making excess contributions can be beneficial but you really need to do some careful analysis before deliberately embarking. For the coming year taxable income in the $37k to $80k range has a MTR of 32.5%. That might not be a bad place to earn the additional income.
The extra info on the non-concessional cap is also really valuable (thanks heaps for that). This was information I was not aware of (that contributions above the $25K will count towards the non-concession contributions). I won't go anwhere near exceeding the $450K 3 year limit, but have to be careful with the $150K p.a. limit next year, as I have some other maturing real estate deals that I was gonna use to contribute non-concessionally to my Super. The bit about the Chief's income is also very handy, although life expectancy and her will have to be taken into account.
So the taxable income issue remains the main driver for me. I will have to investigate (in the next few weeks) just what things a higher taxable income are likely to affect (if I chose not to salary sacrifice the additional $25K that I have been contributing to my Super up to now).
Last edited by skully on Sun 20 May 2012, 12:30; edited 1 time in total
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
skully wrote:"FT"?
Sorry, FTB - Family Tax Benefit.
JGK- Number of posts : 41790
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Cheers, MrK.
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Sorry Mick, one last dumb question. Just confirming the non-concessional Super contributions tax rate. The ATO website says (as you point out) that they are taxed at 46.5%, but it is dated July 2011.
So this rate doesn't change as other tax rates do in 2012-13? I think you clearly say this in your educational post above, but just making 100% sure. And earnings over a taxable income of $80,000 will attract a tax rate of 38.5% (37% + Medicare Levy) in 2012-13?
If this is the case, there is a clear 8% advantage (46.5% - 38.5%) in NOT contributing over the $25K non-concessional limit. Looks to be much better to stick any surplus away in an ING Term deposit at 5.5% in the Chief's name (interest earnings taxed at 34% incl. Medicare Levy - the wee bit of part time work she insists on dragging herself off to each week plus her interest earnings take her over the $37K threshold).
So this rate doesn't change as other tax rates do in 2012-13? I think you clearly say this in your educational post above, but just making 100% sure. And earnings over a taxable income of $80,000 will attract a tax rate of 38.5% (37% + Medicare Levy) in 2012-13?
If this is the case, there is a clear 8% advantage (46.5% - 38.5%) in NOT contributing over the $25K non-concessional limit. Looks to be much better to stick any surplus away in an ING Term deposit at 5.5% in the Chief's name (interest earnings taxed at 34% incl. Medicare Levy - the wee bit of part time work she insists on dragging herself off to each week plus her interest earnings take her over the $37K threshold).
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
skully wrote:Sorry Mick, one last dumb question. Just confirming the non-concessional Super contributions tax rate. The ATO website says (as you point out) that they are taxed at 46.5%, but it is dated July 2011.
So this rate doesn't change as other tax rates do in 2012-13? I think you clearly say this in your educational post above, but just making 100% sure. And earnings over a taxable income of $80,000 will attract a tax rate of 38.5% (37% + Medicare Levy) in 2012-13?
If this is the case, there is a clear 8% advantage (46.5% - 38.5%) in NOT contributing over the $25K non-concessional limit. Looks to be much better to stick any surplus away in an ING Term deposit at 5.5% in the Chief's name (interest earnings taxed at 34% incl. Medicare Levy - the wee bit of part time work she insists on dragging herself off to each week plus her interest earnings take her over the $37K threshold).
Rates are changing over the next few years. I'll put up a full table tomorrow.
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
You're a fine chap.
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Just confirming the non-concessional Super contributions tax rate. The ATO website says (as you point out) that they are taxed at 46.5%, but it is dated July 2011.
The top personal rate & the threshold (i.e. 46.5% at > $180k) remain the same through 2015/16, therefore the excess penalty also remains at the current 46.5%
.... earnings over a taxable income of $80,000 will attract a tax rate of 38.5% (37% + Medicare Levy) in 2012-13?
The MTR applying to taxable income in the $80k to $180k band also remain unchanged through to 2015/16 at 38.5%, as you say.
Looks to be much better to stick any surplus away in an ING Term deposit at 5.5% in the Chief's name (interest earnings taxed at 34% incl. Medicare Levy - the wee bit of part time work she insists on dragging herself off to each week plus her interest earnings take her over the $37K threshold).
Income in the $37k to $80k range will be taxed at 34% (32.5% + 1.5%) for the next two income years rising to 34.5% in 2015/16.
I understand there are other issues at play but the cheapest tax would be within super in your wife's name.
Last edited by Mick Sawyer on Mon 21 May 2012, 09:17; edited 1 time in total
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Cheers Mick.
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
I've seen up to 5.6% for 90 days.
bodyline- Number of posts : 2335
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bodyline- Number of posts : 2335
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
bodyline wrote:I've seen up to 5.6% for 90 days.
With who?
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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bodyline- Number of posts : 2335
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
Cheers bl
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
An article from Morningstar on why you shouldn't invest in TDs (albeit written by a fund manager!). Have put it in the spoiler so as not to seem Kartiesque.
- Spoiler:
Why not invest all your money in term deposits?
Daniel Needham | 23 May 2012 Page 1 of 1
Daniel Needham is managing director Asia Pacific for Ibbotson Associates.
There has been much criticism of the use of term deposits by institutions standing to lose significant revenue through their increased use, producing the ever dangerous "it's time in the market, not timing the market" mantra.
This has led to widespread adoption of static buy-and-hold approaches, irrespective of price (meaning valuation). The objective of this piece is to provide a rationale for not investing all of your money in bank-issued term deposits.
It aims to do so using a valuation framework built on fundamentals rather than invoking the capital asset pricing model that most static buy-and-hold strategies are built off.
How does one determine whether term deposits make a good investment? There are a number of key elements worth considering. These include the level of interest rates and term deposit rates, the credit quality of the institution and the broader credit cycle, the potential level of inflation and inflation surprise, the potential investment returns of other assets, fees and taxes of each asset, and the inherent uncertainty of investing.
In Australia, like many other developed nations, the government stands behind the deposits of qualifying institutions and this reduces their default risk. With credit risk reduced, it comes down to whether term deposit rates compensate for the risk of inflation and inflation surprise, reinvestment risk and the ability to access better investment outcomes in other assets.
If you want to do better than cash, then investing in term deposits will fail to achieve these goals at certain times. Term deposit income does not grow. If you invest in a term deposit today, there should be no expectation of a higher rate during the term. Therefore, it is possible to break term deposit rates into just two components - inflation and real income. Alternatively, the returns of listed markets can be broken down into the three components - inflation, dividends (real income) and price appreciation (real income growth).
Interest rates on term deposits provide investors with a low-risk real return and it is hard to argue against some allocation to term deposits. However, the future is inherently uncertain for term deposit investors, and reinvestment risk and inflation risks are two elements that warrant special attention.
Assuming investors want to generate returns that are better than holding cash in the bank, then these two risks have the potential to lead to poor investment outcomes, for example: in an environment where inflation is above five percent, even at current rates, investors in term deposits are likely to lose money in real terms, or if rates fall significantly over the term of the deposit, investors may not be able to achieve returns above inflation, when they seek to reinvest, especially if government policy is designed to stimulate asset price inflation via low interest rates or banks are no longer offering above market rates.
If an investor can invest in listed property trusts or companies that have yields of similar levels to term deposits (on sustainable payout terms), it may be possible to generate returns above these rates to grow long-term wealth, as well as providing diversification against rising inflation. Term deposits do not hedge against inflation or grow capital in real terms during periods of high inflation.
There are many alternative investments to term deposits, but for simplicity we will use Australian listed property trusts focused primarily on owning and managing high-grade Australian commercial property with limited development activity. We are using an equally-weighted average of the top 12 Australian listed property trusts, excluding the two large developers, companies primarily involved in funds management and with a largely offshore market focus. This leads to a portfolio tilted more towards owning rental property rather than development profits.
The current yield on such a portfolio is around 6.2 per cent and the payout ratio is 83.0 per cent, so roughly 17.0 per cent of earnings are being held back for investment, management and cash-flow management. Using net tangible assets (NTA) estimates, the portfolio is trading at around a 13.0 per cent discount to underlying valuation estimates. The average capitalisation rate (net operating income (NOI) over property value) is 7.5 per cent and NOI should likely keep track with inflation plus a little more reflecting the economic variability of lease rates and occupancy levels.
Clearly, in nominal terms the potential spread of investment outcomes for the portfolio of property trusts is much wider than for a term deposit. What is a reasonable expectation for the real estate investment trust portfolio and what are the potential outcomes?
To illustrate this we will use three simple scenarios, reflecting good, normal and poor outcomes ignoring tax (which is actually too important to ignore, but this analysis helps term deposits). The asset is trading at a discount to NTA and we will use conservative upside inputs.
We believe the probability of the good scenario is a bit more likely than the poor scenario, but to be conservative this upside is not reflected in our scenario. We use changes in net operating income, underlying NTA, price to NTA and distributions. This is a simple back-of-the-envelope approach, and more detailed fundamental analysis is necessary, but for illustrative purposes this will suffice. We assume the earnings and NTA grow in line with net operating income, not including the changes in the balance sheet around gearing and equity issuance.
The current five-year term deposit is about 5.70 per cent (it may be possible to do better) and applying the probability to the above scenarios, the expected return is 8.90 per cent a year from the listed property portfolio, 3.20 percentage points above the five-year term deposit rate. However, this doesn't come without risk, with a serious decline in value under a poor scenario. Effectively the downside has been penalised heavily and the upside made fairly conservative. Under the poor scenario, the cap rate increase, NOI outcome and P/NTA level are extremely bearish and lower than the global financial crisis ending points. Also, the normal scenario assumes the sector continues to trade at the current discount to NTA - this is effectively the margin of safety built into this approach.
One can see that on balance, this portfolio can produce much better outcomes than a five-year term deposit. Term deposits are likely to be safer, but this comes with a guaranteed low return.
Using the above example, it is possible to identify assets that can outperform a portfolio of term deposits with a reasonable degree of confidence. Investors happy to generate cash returns have no need to bother trying to do better, but those with a more aggressive goal need to understand that a portfolio fully invested in term deposits is guaranteed to not do better and has inflation and reinvestment risk.
While there may be times when a large allocation to term deposits is prudent, this should be based on objective and thorough analysis of the level of interest rates, the credit cycle, inflation risk, the investment opportunity set and the sobering reality that the future is uncertain. Using a valuation-based approach and a sensible set of assumptions one can assess the opportunity set over a reasonable time frame and, provided investors can tolerate fluctuations in their portfolio value, it is possible to generate better returns than term deposits with a tolerable level of risk of losing money in real terms over this horizon.
JGK- Number of posts : 41790
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
JGK wrote:An article from Morningstar on why you shouldn't invest in TDs (albeit written by a fund manager!).
I'll get to all that a bit later.
I read the other day that there's currently $1.3 trillion lying in cash around the country at the moment.
Mick Sawyer- Number of posts : 7267
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
All very well for him to say. When I look at the Equity components of my Super account, all (I have 8 Aus + International equity funds) are in the negative except one. When they are all in positive return territory again I will look at getting back into shares. Over 70% of my Super is currently sitting safely in TDs. So fark Mr Needham with a bouquet of barbed wire.JGK wrote:An article from Morningstar on why you shouldn't invest in TDs (albeit written by a fund manager!). Have put it in the spoiler so as not to seem Kartiesque.
- Spoiler:
Why not invest all your money in term deposits?
Daniel Needham | 23 May 2012 Page 1 of 1
Daniel Needham is managing director Asia Pacific for Ibbotson Associates.
There has been much criticism of the use of term deposits by institutions standing to lose significant revenue through their increased use, producing the ever dangerous "it's time in the market, not timing the market" mantra.
This has led to widespread adoption of static buy-and-hold approaches, irrespective of price (meaning valuation). The objective of this piece is to provide a rationale for not investing all of your money in bank-issued term deposits.
It aims to do so using a valuation framework built on fundamentals rather than invoking the capital asset pricing model that most static buy-and-hold strategies are built off.
How does one determine whether term deposits make a good investment? There are a number of key elements worth considering. These include the level of interest rates and term deposit rates, the credit quality of the institution and the broader credit cycle, the potential level of inflation and inflation surprise, the potential investment returns of other assets, fees and taxes of each asset, and the inherent uncertainty of investing.
In Australia, like many other developed nations, the government stands behind the deposits of qualifying institutions and this reduces their default risk. With credit risk reduced, it comes down to whether term deposit rates compensate for the risk of inflation and inflation surprise, reinvestment risk and the ability to access better investment outcomes in other assets.
If you want to do better than cash, then investing in term deposits will fail to achieve these goals at certain times. Term deposit income does not grow. If you invest in a term deposit today, there should be no expectation of a higher rate during the term. Therefore, it is possible to break term deposit rates into just two components - inflation and real income. Alternatively, the returns of listed markets can be broken down into the three components - inflation, dividends (real income) and price appreciation (real income growth).
Interest rates on term deposits provide investors with a low-risk real return and it is hard to argue against some allocation to term deposits. However, the future is inherently uncertain for term deposit investors, and reinvestment risk and inflation risks are two elements that warrant special attention.
Assuming investors want to generate returns that are better than holding cash in the bank, then these two risks have the potential to lead to poor investment outcomes, for example: in an environment where inflation is above five percent, even at current rates, investors in term deposits are likely to lose money in real terms, or if rates fall significantly over the term of the deposit, investors may not be able to achieve returns above inflation, when they seek to reinvest, especially if government policy is designed to stimulate asset price inflation via low interest rates or banks are no longer offering above market rates.
If an investor can invest in listed property trusts or companies that have yields of similar levels to term deposits (on sustainable payout terms), it may be possible to generate returns above these rates to grow long-term wealth, as well as providing diversification against rising inflation. Term deposits do not hedge against inflation or grow capital in real terms during periods of high inflation.
There are many alternative investments to term deposits, but for simplicity we will use Australian listed property trusts focused primarily on owning and managing high-grade Australian commercial property with limited development activity. We are using an equally-weighted average of the top 12 Australian listed property trusts, excluding the two large developers, companies primarily involved in funds management and with a largely offshore market focus. This leads to a portfolio tilted more towards owning rental property rather than development profits.
The current yield on such a portfolio is around 6.2 per cent and the payout ratio is 83.0 per cent, so roughly 17.0 per cent of earnings are being held back for investment, management and cash-flow management. Using net tangible assets (NTA) estimates, the portfolio is trading at around a 13.0 per cent discount to underlying valuation estimates. The average capitalisation rate (net operating income (NOI) over property value) is 7.5 per cent and NOI should likely keep track with inflation plus a little more reflecting the economic variability of lease rates and occupancy levels.
Clearly, in nominal terms the potential spread of investment outcomes for the portfolio of property trusts is much wider than for a term deposit. What is a reasonable expectation for the real estate investment trust portfolio and what are the potential outcomes?
To illustrate this we will use three simple scenarios, reflecting good, normal and poor outcomes ignoring tax (which is actually too important to ignore, but this analysis helps term deposits). The asset is trading at a discount to NTA and we will use conservative upside inputs.
We believe the probability of the good scenario is a bit more likely than the poor scenario, but to be conservative this upside is not reflected in our scenario. We use changes in net operating income, underlying NTA, price to NTA and distributions. This is a simple back-of-the-envelope approach, and more detailed fundamental analysis is necessary, but for illustrative purposes this will suffice. We assume the earnings and NTA grow in line with net operating income, not including the changes in the balance sheet around gearing and equity issuance.
The current five-year term deposit is about 5.70 per cent (it may be possible to do better) and applying the probability to the above scenarios, the expected return is 8.90 per cent a year from the listed property portfolio, 3.20 percentage points above the five-year term deposit rate. However, this doesn't come without risk, with a serious decline in value under a poor scenario. Effectively the downside has been penalised heavily and the upside made fairly conservative. Under the poor scenario, the cap rate increase, NOI outcome and P/NTA level are extremely bearish and lower than the global financial crisis ending points. Also, the normal scenario assumes the sector continues to trade at the current discount to NTA - this is effectively the margin of safety built into this approach.
One can see that on balance, this portfolio can produce much better outcomes than a five-year term deposit. Term deposits are likely to be safer, but this comes with a guaranteed low return.
Using the above example, it is possible to identify assets that can outperform a portfolio of term deposits with a reasonable degree of confidence. Investors happy to generate cash returns have no need to bother trying to do better, but those with a more aggressive goal need to understand that a portfolio fully invested in term deposits is guaranteed to not do better and has inflation and reinvestment risk.
While there may be times when a large allocation to term deposits is prudent, this should be based on objective and thorough analysis of the level of interest rates, the credit cycle, inflation risk, the investment opportunity set and the sobering reality that the future is uncertain. Using a valuation-based approach and a sensible set of assumptions one can assess the opportunity set over a reasonable time frame and, provided investors can tolerate fluctuations in their portfolio value, it is possible to generate better returns than term deposits with a tolerable level of risk of losing money in real terms over this horizon.
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
One more question for the Gurus.
The Means Testing of the Health Fund Rebate kicks in on July 1, 2012 (yet another quntish pig-ignorant act by the Pinkos). There is a remarkable lack of info on this Means Test. The best I can find is a page on the ATO website from 2010 which states that there will be three tiers. The doc states for combined family income of $168K to $194K the rebate drops to 20% and the medicare levy surcharge increases by 1.0%. For $194K to $260K the rebate drops to 10% and medicare surcharge increase by 1.25%. Combined income above $260K loses the 30% rebate and incurs a medicare levy sucharge of 1.5%.
Is this table correct and am I right in understanding that those couples that, for instance, fall into the first tier will have to pay 10% more on the Health Fund premium AND 1.0% extra each on their medicare levy?
The Means Testing of the Health Fund Rebate kicks in on July 1, 2012 (yet another quntish pig-ignorant act by the Pinkos). There is a remarkable lack of info on this Means Test. The best I can find is a page on the ATO website from 2010 which states that there will be three tiers. The doc states for combined family income of $168K to $194K the rebate drops to 20% and the medicare levy surcharge increases by 1.0%. For $194K to $260K the rebate drops to 10% and medicare surcharge increase by 1.25%. Combined income above $260K loses the 30% rebate and incurs a medicare levy sucharge of 1.5%.
Is this table correct and am I right in understanding that those couples that, for instance, fall into the first tier will have to pay 10% more on the Health Fund premium AND 1.0% extra each on their medicare levy?
skully- Number of posts : 106496
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Re: So, forum financial gurus...
skully wrote:All very well for him to say. When I look at the Equity components of my Super account, all (I have 8 Aus + International equity funds) are in the negative except one. When they are all in positive return territory again I will look at getting back into shares. Over 70% of my Super is currently sitting safely in TDs. So fark Mr Needham with a bouquet of barbed wire.JGK wrote:An article from Morningstar on why you shouldn't invest in TDs (albeit written by a fund manager!). Have put it in the spoiler so as not to seem Kartiesque.
- Spoiler:
Why not invest all your money in term deposits?
Daniel Needham | 23 May 2012 Page 1 of 1
Daniel Needham is managing director Asia Pacific for Ibbotson Associates.
There has been much criticism of the use of term deposits by institutions standing to lose significant revenue through their increased use, producing the ever dangerous "it's time in the market, not timing the market" mantra.
This has led to widespread adoption of static buy-and-hold approaches, irrespective of price (meaning valuation). The objective of this piece is to provide a rationale for not investing all of your money in bank-issued term deposits.
It aims to do so using a valuation framework built on fundamentals rather than invoking the capital asset pricing model that most static buy-and-hold strategies are built off.
How does one determine whether term deposits make a good investment? There are a number of key elements worth considering. These include the level of interest rates and term deposit rates, the credit quality of the institution and the broader credit cycle, the potential level of inflation and inflation surprise, the potential investment returns of other assets, fees and taxes of each asset, and the inherent uncertainty of investing.
In Australia, like many other developed nations, the government stands behind the deposits of qualifying institutions and this reduces their default risk. With credit risk reduced, it comes down to whether term deposit rates compensate for the risk of inflation and inflation surprise, reinvestment risk and the ability to access better investment outcomes in other assets.
If you want to do better than cash, then investing in term deposits will fail to achieve these goals at certain times. Term deposit income does not grow. If you invest in a term deposit today, there should be no expectation of a higher rate during the term. Therefore, it is possible to break term deposit rates into just two components - inflation and real income. Alternatively, the returns of listed markets can be broken down into the three components - inflation, dividends (real income) and price appreciation (real income growth).
Interest rates on term deposits provide investors with a low-risk real return and it is hard to argue against some allocation to term deposits. However, the future is inherently uncertain for term deposit investors, and reinvestment risk and inflation risks are two elements that warrant special attention.
Assuming investors want to generate returns that are better than holding cash in the bank, then these two risks have the potential to lead to poor investment outcomes, for example: in an environment where inflation is above five percent, even at current rates, investors in term deposits are likely to lose money in real terms, or if rates fall significantly over the term of the deposit, investors may not be able to achieve returns above inflation, when they seek to reinvest, especially if government policy is designed to stimulate asset price inflation via low interest rates or banks are no longer offering above market rates.
If an investor can invest in listed property trusts or companies that have yields of similar levels to term deposits (on sustainable payout terms), it may be possible to generate returns above these rates to grow long-term wealth, as well as providing diversification against rising inflation. Term deposits do not hedge against inflation or grow capital in real terms during periods of high inflation.
There are many alternative investments to term deposits, but for simplicity we will use Australian listed property trusts focused primarily on owning and managing high-grade Australian commercial property with limited development activity. We are using an equally-weighted average of the top 12 Australian listed property trusts, excluding the two large developers, companies primarily involved in funds management and with a largely offshore market focus. This leads to a portfolio tilted more towards owning rental property rather than development profits.
The current yield on such a portfolio is around 6.2 per cent and the payout ratio is 83.0 per cent, so roughly 17.0 per cent of earnings are being held back for investment, management and cash-flow management. Using net tangible assets (NTA) estimates, the portfolio is trading at around a 13.0 per cent discount to underlying valuation estimates. The average capitalisation rate (net operating income (NOI) over property value) is 7.5 per cent and NOI should likely keep track with inflation plus a little more reflecting the economic variability of lease rates and occupancy levels.
Clearly, in nominal terms the potential spread of investment outcomes for the portfolio of property trusts is much wider than for a term deposit. What is a reasonable expectation for the real estate investment trust portfolio and what are the potential outcomes?
To illustrate this we will use three simple scenarios, reflecting good, normal and poor outcomes ignoring tax (which is actually too important to ignore, but this analysis helps term deposits). The asset is trading at a discount to NTA and we will use conservative upside inputs.
We believe the probability of the good scenario is a bit more likely than the poor scenario, but to be conservative this upside is not reflected in our scenario. We use changes in net operating income, underlying NTA, price to NTA and distributions. This is a simple back-of-the-envelope approach, and more detailed fundamental analysis is necessary, but for illustrative purposes this will suffice. We assume the earnings and NTA grow in line with net operating income, not including the changes in the balance sheet around gearing and equity issuance.
The current five-year term deposit is about 5.70 per cent (it may be possible to do better) and applying the probability to the above scenarios, the expected return is 8.90 per cent a year from the listed property portfolio, 3.20 percentage points above the five-year term deposit rate. However, this doesn't come without risk, with a serious decline in value under a poor scenario. Effectively the downside has been penalised heavily and the upside made fairly conservative. Under the poor scenario, the cap rate increase, NOI outcome and P/NTA level are extremely bearish and lower than the global financial crisis ending points. Also, the normal scenario assumes the sector continues to trade at the current discount to NTA - this is effectively the margin of safety built into this approach.
One can see that on balance, this portfolio can produce much better outcomes than a five-year term deposit. Term deposits are likely to be safer, but this comes with a guaranteed low return.
Using the above example, it is possible to identify assets that can outperform a portfolio of term deposits with a reasonable degree of confidence. Investors happy to generate cash returns have no need to bother trying to do better, but those with a more aggressive goal need to understand that a portfolio fully invested in term deposits is guaranteed to not do better and has inflation and reinvestment risk.
While there may be times when a large allocation to term deposits is prudent, this should be based on objective and thorough analysis of the level of interest rates, the credit cycle, inflation risk, the investment opportunity set and the sobering reality that the future is uncertain. Using a valuation-based approach and a sensible set of assumptions one can assess the opportunity set over a reasonable time frame and, provided investors can tolerate fluctuations in their portfolio value, it is possible to generate better returns than term deposits with a tolerable level of risk of losing money in real terms over this horizon.
I have my doubts as to whether a number of Property Trusts have sufficient impairement on there properties - and I wonder what the real impairment amount would be for banks with first mortgages over res property given the decline in res property values.
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