Re: UK politics thread (II)

[Bradman]

Maybe, but anyone betting on what happens next deserves it.

[Growler]

So "no deal" now favourite?

Agree with Bradders, taips.

Although it would be the most painful outcome in respect of the economy - at least in the short/medium term - I now think that the only way the current mess will end is for the EU to now say that we must leave with no deal in a fortnight.

It's ironic, but with a no-deal Brexit, I believe that a trade deal will be easier to negotiate. Why? Simply because with a clean break, nobody will be estimating/guessing the effects of trade disruption in financial terms. The pain will become real across mainland Europe - both in terms of lost sales and the redundancies that could follow, and the loss of our financial contribution for EU membership. Ordinary people will feel the financial pain, sadly - the same as we will.

There's no valid reason negotiations need drag on - we already comply with all EU rules and standards regarding trade, and there's no reason to alter those arrangements. In the meantime, UK and EU businesses alike will know where they stand. Hasn't the three years of uncertainty so far caused enough harm? We could easily reach 2021, or even 2024 and be precisely where we are right now. Who benefits from that? Why would the political dullards, head-cases and downright wreckers alter their attitudes?

Yes, I wanted us to leave - preferably with a sensible deal fair to both us and the EU, but without one if necessary. Simce the ultras on both sides appear to be beyond reconciliation, I'd just like to see us out as per the referendum result.

Unlike some, my attitude has never, ever been "we won, so suck it up, Remainer cupcakes" - but being constantly reminded that I'm a thick, bigoted xenophobic, homophobic, islamophobic, racist, sexist, uneducated, ignorant little shit-kicker isn't doing much to win me over to the other point of view.

[horace]

Sorry to hear you have copped abuse. 

One question for you Growler is whether you have more information on the implications of brexit than you had before?

It seems to me the major proponents of leave or remain were not interested in ensuring the public had the benefit of making informed decisions. Subsequent to the referendum much more info has been available on the implications,

[Growler]

Horace - neither I, nor anyone else has any more information than before the referendum.

The leave and remain campaigns were dubbed "Project Lies" and "Project Fear" for a good reason. Both sides exaggerated beyond any bounds of credibility. The vast majority knew it wasn't going to be a splendid utopia of isolation - nor armageddon either.

Before the vote even took place, the forecasts were for an economic crash the like of which we hadn't seen for decades - including hikes in interest rates and unemployment combined with a drop in GDP. It simply didn't happen. We've heard the hyperbole before so many times. The list of things which scientists, government and media combined went OTT over include ...

1. The AIDS Virus
2. Salmonella in eggs
3. Listeria in milk
4. BSE/vCJD
5. Avian 'flu
6. The Millennium bug
7. Swine flu

... the authorities have "cried wolf" too often horrie. Most people simply don't believe them any longer.

We knew that leaving would have economic/employment consequences, including negative ones. We also knew that continued membership in no way protected jobs - as shown by the decline of our traditional heavy industries, the 1980/81 recession, the 1990/91 recession and the 2008 global crash.

I fully agree with what you say regarding information - but sadly the well of truth has been too badly poisoned for anyone to know what's fact and what's guesswork. Most of it is guesswork. Maybe best guesswork, but still estimates of what "may" happen.

[Bradman]

Good to see the EU moving with its customary speed and grace calling an " emergency meeting" for five minutes to midnight.

[Basil]

We have the 5th largest economy in the world. We have unemployment at a 44 year low. We have been a member of the EU since 1975. Those facts,for that is what they are, are not entirely unconnected.

I'm sorry that Growler has been subjected to abuse. Everyone I know who voted Leave has done so with utter conviction and without recourse to any sort of hostility towards anyone disagreeing with them

While I have not been abused for my beliefs to my face, others who hold similar opinions to me have been. "Traitors" is the usual one. "Nazis" is another, usually spoken by people with zero understanding of history and whose own politics are , shall we say, closer to Hitler than Stalin.

Great damage is being done to the fabric of this country by this disaster. The economy is already showing signs of distress due to the uncertainty. Never mind the hell on wheels that WILL follow if we tumble out with no deal.

Don't ask me how it will end. Wiser heads than mine have no idea, but it will get worse before it gets better.

[horace]

Thanks Basil for all that. Yes gleaning proper information sounds like trying to find a diamond in a massive sullage pit. The pit of course was filled by remain and leave proponents.

No-one would have wanted it of course but it may have been useful to have a neutral Commission made up of economists, trade, demographers, lawyers and health and human service experts and the like. 

They would have been charged with teasing out the implications of leave/remain and then publishing these through all media vehicles ahead of the referendum.

The information provided would have to be neutral, arguing for neither case. There would still be speculation because it deals with the unknown, but that speculation would have to be clearly declared.

The Commission would also have been charged with obtaining a series of short statements from industry, unions, farmers, civil society organisations etc. These would have been stripped of pro/con argument and limited to testing the implications.

Impossible I know, but I would have tried to limit the amount of campaigning ahead of the referendum by politicians of al hues and their various front organisations. Similarly I would have limited mainstream media from taking active positions and bull shitting (hello Mr Murdoch).

I would have encouraged development of informal discussion groups across the country in workplaces, recreation centres, eg golf clubs, community centres, pubs. The Commission could have supported these groups with speakers and hard copy info. People holding public office and office bearers in political parties would be banned from talking in these meetings.

[Growler]

We have the 5th largest economy in the world. We have unemployment at a 44 year low. We have been a member of the EU since 1975. Those facts,for that is what they are, are not entirely unconnected.

Absolutely right, Bas - but having stayed as a purely trading partner, rather than going down the path of further political integration doesn't mean that we would now be some kind of banana republic.

I'm sorry that Growler has been subjected to abuse. Everyone I know who voted Leave has done so with utter conviction and without recourse to any sort of hostility towards anyone disagreeing with them

While I have not been abused for my beliefs to my face, others who hold similar opinions to me have been. "Traitors" is the usual one. "Nazis" is another, usually spoken by people with zero understanding of history and whose own politics are , shall we say, closer to Hitler than Stalin.

Ach, it's generally been from no-marks on t'internet. On the odd occasion it's been face to face, my usual response is that they've confused me.

Confused me with somebody who gives a flying fook about their opinion, that is.

Great damage is being done to the fabric of this country by this disaster. The economy is already showing signs of distress due to the uncertainty. Never mind the hell on wheels that WILL follow if we tumble out with no deal.

And that's why "no deal" will FORCE everyone to start repairing the damage. The current uncertainties just allow the political pygmies to continue causing damage in pursuit of grubby personal ambition.

Don't ask me how it will end. Wiser heads than mine have no idea, but it will get worse before it gets better.

If we get a Corbyn government, or worse still a coalition of Corbyn/SNP we genuinely are done for. Sturgeon giving Corbyn his orders before he gets a single act through the lobbies, we will finally become that banana republic I wrote about ...

[Basil]

This is why I'm passionate about a second referendum. The Irish border question, for example, never came up in the original vote. So much more information is out there about the implications of leaving the EU.

I can live with a Leave vote in a second referendum, it would have far more validity than the verdict in the I initial vote.

[Basil]

We have the 5th largest economy in the world. We have unemployment at a 44 year low. We have been a member of the EU since 1975. Those facts,for that is what they are, are not entirely unconnected.

Absolutely right, Bas - but having stayed as a purely trading partner, rather than going down the path of further political integration doesn't mean that we would now be some kind of banana republic.

I'm sorry that Growler has been subjected to abuse. Everyone I know who voted Leave has done so with utter conviction and without recourse to any sort of hostility towards anyone disagreeing with them

While I have not been abused for my beliefs to my face, others who hold similar opinions to me have been. "Traitors" is the usual one. "Nazis" is another, usually spoken by people with zero understanding of history and whose own politics are , shall we say, closer to Hitler than Stalin.

Ach, it's generally been from no-marks on t'internet. On the odd occasion it's been face to face, my usual response is that they've confused me.

Confused me with somebody who gives a flying fook about their opinion, that is.

Great damage is being done to the fabric of this country by this disaster. The economy is already showing signs of distress due to the uncertainty. Never mind the hell on wheels that WILL follow if we tumble out with no deal.

And that's why "no deal" will FORCE everyone to start repairing the damage. The current uncertainties just allow the political pygmies to continue causing damage in pursuit of grubby personal ambition.

Don't ask me how it will end. Wiser heads than mine have no idea, but it will get worse before it gets better.

If we get a Corbyn government, or worse still a coalition of Corbyn/SNP we genuinely are done for. Sturgeon giving Corbyn his orders before he gets a single act through the lobbies, we will finally become that banana republic I wrote about ...

We won't get Corbyn; he's less popular than May. Not that we that we're likely to get an election soon, the Tories will want a new  leader first.

What fun we will have if we have to hold elections for the EU parliament.

[Bradman]

The Irish border question never came up because it was just assumed it was one of the peripheral issues that would be sorted during the exit process. It was only the people with their hands on the levers who saw they could use it as wedge.

[Growler]

I hear you Bas, and understand your POV regarding plebiscite in this particular circumstance.

However, purely on a point of principle - bearing in mind that the result of an original referendum has not been enacted ... isn't that a case of "keep voting 'til you give us the result we want?

Regarding the NI situation, two points.

1. Had Cameron and Osbourne et al stressed serious issues like this, rather than threatening to cut pensions (note :- not unemployment, child or disability benefits - only pensions), Leave could well have had the ground cut from under their feet.

2. It may not have made any real difference. When the leader of the Tory Party publicly states that people voting UKIP are "a bunch of fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists" ...

... and the Labour PM during an election campaign is recorded referring to a lifelong supporter as "that bigoted woman"...

... can anyone really be surprised that so many people took the only opportunity in the last 40 years to really, really hurt the very people who have treated them with utter contempt, whatever the cost?

The mistake we leavers made was in underestimating what a shower of venal, incompetent charlatans we've all been voting for for so long - and believing them when every single one stood on a manifesto of delivering the referendum result at the last GE.

[horace]

This is why I'm passionate about a second referendum. The Irish border question, for example, never came up in the original vote. So much more information is out there about the implications of leaving the EU.

I can live with a Leave vote in a second referendum, it would have far more validity than the verdict in the I initial vote.

I agree a second referendum would be ideal. Unhappily it seems few politicians are willing to go down that route. Who knows the Maybot's option could have found favour and made it easier to get it through the HoC. 

I 100% agree with your comments about the Irish border. As I am still planning to quasi emigrate to the Republic I have had a vested interest in following the information that has come out about the implications for the border. 

I was really struck by an article I read a while ago that identified what a hard Brexit may mean for current health and community service arrangements between NI and the Republic. Since the Good Friday Agreement all manner of terrific initiatives have been implemented including in areas like foster care where the border has been invisible. These current service arrangements that improve outcomes for people are now jeopardised.

[Bradman]

Considering there was an existing framework for post brexit, let's call it swisslite, and Ireland effectively operated under three different customs regimes as well as an internal situation that never allowed soft borders some of the wreckers on both sides of the channel should be strung up. No deal may well force everyone to wake up.

[Bradman]

Worried about your pension post move horrie?

[horace]

Worried about your pension post move horrie?

Will look to supplementing through the traditional SW Cork pursuits of bee keeping, fish and meat smoking and smuggling. 

One of the joints I am interested in buying is ideal. Close to the coastline and several ports, couple of acres, two waterfalls, fruit trees, lots of old stone ruins providing potential secure storage areas to protect the 'honey'!

[skully]

So will you be forumming from Ireland, h?

[Bradman]

Apart from the paucity of snakes and virgins it could be Eden.

[horace]

So will you be forumming from Ireland, h?

Of course Skully.

[horace]

Apart from the paucity of snakes and virgins it could be Eden.

Hehehe ... it is glorious aside from every second ugly mug looking like me.

[embee]

[horace]

rofl... hope a former regular here reads and enjoys that.

[taipan]

For the first time in history the UK will probably see the end of May before the end of April.

[horace]

For the first time in history the UK will probably see the end of May before the end of April.

Funny


The Ides of March doomed the Ideas of May





Coat donned

[Bradman]

For the first time in history the UK will probably see the end of May before the end of April.

Funny


The Ides of March doomed the Ideas of May





Coat donned

diem tertia kalenda aprilia actually, though my Latin is as probably bad as your, coat donning would suggest your metaphor is.

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