Re: UK politics thread (II)

[taipan]

Growls, what’s your view on this latest development?

[skully]

So May is sitting down with Corbyn to start again. Will "something" plus "nothing" deliver "anything"?

[Bradman]

So Churchillian yet so wrong.

[horace]

So Churchillian yet so wrong.

No. It is so Churchillian it makes sense.

Between them it is impossible to count the contents of the hatful of arseholes or angels on a pin... whatever moves Taips boat.

[skully]

Conf of hat??

[Bradman]

Duke of Earl, conf of hat..dup..dup (rpt)

[Growler]

Growls, what’s your view on this latest development?

My view, taips? Same shit, different day.

I'm sick to the back teeth of the whole shit show, and I want it over with. I honestly believe that nothing is gained by any extension to article 50. Six months, a year, two years or five years ... even if an agreement is reached which gets a majority in the house, there's no guarantee that the EU will accept it - and both we and mainland European businesses will have the same uncertainty they have today. Nobody can plan, and everyone will spend a lot of money in anticipation of a situation that may not arise.

Leave in two weeks, on WTO rules. Negotiate from there, where each party knows the starting point. We should obviously honour any financial commitments that we have already made. There's no good reason a trade deal can't be expedited reasonably quickly with the EU - with current agreement on standards etc to continue, and market access payments as needed.

Likewise, other countries can make trade agreements with us far quicker than with the EU. Obama's "back of the queue" was nonsense. Yes, the EU a far bigger market - but will take far longer for all 27 countries to unanimously agree.  

As a side note - Brexit is the least of the EU's worries. Although there's no doubt our economy will suffer, it's still quite strong - and will remain that way.

In spite of the global crash in 2008, since the year 2000, the UK economy has grown by 40%, adding £1 trillion to the national output.
If/when we leave, Italy will be the third largest economy in the EU. In 2000, their economy was a similar size to ours. Nineteen years later, it hasn't grown at all. Not by a single Euro, according to a report by the OECD in Paris.

LINKY  

Juncker, Barnier, Tusk and the rest of them are so busy playing politics (whilst answering to nobody), they are ignoring the real time bomb under their precious project.

Honestly, whilst dis-satisfied with the EU generally, I wasn't agitating to leave. I think most of the 17 million other leave voters, we simply felt ignored and actively despised by the political classes. When Cameron in a fit of unbelievable and unsurpassed stupidity and arrogance gave us the chance to speak, we did so.

Now, we'd like to be finally heard, and leave the EU.

I don't aim what I say now at ordinary people (like Basil and beamer) who voted remain for honourable and genuine reasons and beliefs. I aim it at the venal MPs who campaigned to deliver the referendum result who are voting to overturn it. They have had two years to help find solutions to the issues arising. Instead they've basically said " you wanted it, you deliver it". then put traps and obstacles in the way.

Just to be clear though, I've no more time for Boris and the other cretins on the leave side. The best thing that could happen is for Labour and Tories to destroy one another, and lance the boil on the arse of this country once and for all.

[Bradman]

Growls, what’s your view on this latest development?

My view, taips? Same shit, different day.

I'm sick to the back teeth of the whole shit show, and I want it over with. I honestly believe that nothing is gained by any extension to article 50. Six months, a year, two years or five years ... even if an agreement is reached which gets a majority in the house, there's no guarantee that the EU will accept it - and both we and mainland European businesses will have the same uncertainty they have today. Nobody can plan, and everyone will spend a lot of money in anticipation of a situation that may not arise.

Leave in two weeks, on WTO rules. Negotiate from there, where each party knows the starting point. We should obviously honour any financial commitments that we have already made. There's no good reason a trade deal can't be expedited reasonably quickly with the EU - with current agreement on standards etc to continue, and market access payments as needed.

This is not only eminently sensible but practical given the circumstances. No deal in a way takes it out of the hands of the people, esp in parts of Europe (the important parts)where peasants and pitchforks are a reality in recent memory.

Likewise, other countries can make trade agreements with us far quicker than with the EU. Obama's "back of the queue" was nonsense. Yes, the EU a far bigger market - but will take far longer for all 27 countries to unanimously agree.  

As a side note - Brexit is the least of the EU's worries. Although there's no doubt our economy will suffer, it's still quite strong - and will remain that way.

In spite of the global crash in 2008, since the year 2000, the UK economy has grown by 40%, adding £1 trillion to the national output.
If/when we leave, Italy will be the third largest economy in the EU. In 2000, their economy was a similar size to ours. Nineteen years later, it hasn't grown at all. Not by a single Euro, according to a report by the OECD in Paris.

LINKY  

Juncker, Barnier, Tusk and the rest of them are so busy playing politics (whilst answering to nobody), they are ignoring the real time bomb under their precious project.

Honestly, whilst dis-satisfied with the EU generally, I wasn't agitating to leave. I think most of the 17 million other leave voters, we simply felt ignored and actively despised by the political classes. When Cameron in a fit of unbelievable and unsurpassed stupidity and arrogance gave us the chance to speak, we did so.

Now, we'd like to be finally heard, and leave the EU.

I don't aim what I say now at ordinary people (like Basil and beamer) who voted remain for honourable and genuine reasons and beliefs. I aim it at the venal MPs who campaigned to deliver the referendum result who are voting to overturn it. They have had two years to help find solutions to the issues arising. Instead they've basically said " you wanted it, you deliver it". then put traps and obstacles in the way.

Just to be clear though, I've no more time for Boris and the other cretins on the leave side. The best thing that could happen is for Labour and Tories to destroy one another, and lance the boil on the arse of this country once and for all.

[horace]

Seems a no deal BREXIT may result in customs checks between Ireland and the EU. Some on the mainland are arguing for this.

If this transpires the Republic will be totally screwed as the farkin' Pomgolians have done for centuries. The Republic should seek compensation from the Poms and consider retaliatory financial action.

The Republic should also lobby the Chinese to not enter a trade deal with the Poms and enter a belt and road agreement with them. The Irish could also provide China with preferential access to one of their deep water ports.

[horace]

Time the English copped consequences for their hubris.

[Growler]

Seems a no deal BREXIT  may result in customs checks between Ireland and the EU. Some on the mainland are arguing for this.

horrie, *nobody* is arguing *for* a hard border. No politician will openly say so, but many, I think would like to see a re-united Ireland, and let Dublin deal with the malcontents. No Irish politician will openly say so - but I doubt very many of them really want to deal with the malcontents, come to that.

If this transpires the Republic will be totally screwed as the farkin' Pomgolians have done for centuries. The Republic should seek compensation from the Poms and consider retaliatory financial action.

Yes, with current attitudes you're probably right, the republic will suffer. However, they really don't have to be. The Common Travel Area pre-dates the EU by decades, and I don't think the UK has any intention of altering the arrangements. Of course if the EU were rather more pragmatic and less dogmatic, a solution of some kind could be found.

The UK can choose to put in absolutely minimal controls on the border itself - most customs issues can be dealt with electronically. The EU can also choose to have minimal physical checks, but they may well not. Let's be honest - the RoI / NI border is hardly comparable to that of Russia with Finland, Estonia and Latvia.

The Republic should also lobby the Chinese to not enter a trade deal with the Poms and enter a belt and road agreement with them. The Irish could also provide China with preferential access to one of their deep water ports.

I'm sorry, my friend - but this is pure fantasy. First, Ireland *can't* agree anything, with anyone unilaterally. Even if they could, the whole of the EU 27 had a fight on their hands to prevent the dumping of cheap steel onto the market not long ago. Why on earth would they refuse to trade with a market of around 70 million at the behest of a market of less than 5 million customers?

Don't be under any illusuons that the EU have the Republic's best interests at heart. They are letting Greece and Italy rot rather than implementing any policy that would help them. They'll do nothing to alleviate any suffering that may befall the Irish.

[taipan]

Growls, how would the proposed Customs union. Affect freedom of movement?

[Bradman]

There's always been different border arrangements in regards to the republic. And as growls points out there are, despite May's insistence there aren't, technological solutions available for new arrangements. If the EU want to play hardball with Irish trade they're the ones who'll be wearing a whole lot of extra cost because a hard border will be a one way street.

[horace]

Seems a no deal BREXIT  may result in customs checks between Ireland and the EU. Some on the mainland are arguing for this.

horrie, *nobody* is arguing *for* a hard border. No politician will openly say so, but many, I think would like to see a re-united Ireland, and let Dublin deal with the malcontents. No Irish politician will openly say so - but I doubt very many of them really want to deal with the malcontents, come to that.

If this transpires the Republic will be totally screwed as the farkin' Pomgolians have done for centuries. The Republic should seek compensation from the Poms and consider retaliatory financial action.

Yes, with current attitudes you're probably right, the republic will suffer. However, they really don't have to be. The Common Travel Area pre-dates the EU by decades, and I don't think the UK has any intention of altering the arrangements. Of course if the EU were rather more pragmatic and less dogmatic, a solution of some kind could be found.

The UK can choose to put in absolutely minimal controls on the border itself - most customs issues can be dealt with electronically. The EU can also choose to have minimal physical checks, but they may well not. Let's be honest - the RoI / NI border is hardly comparable to that of Russia with Finland, Estonia and Latvia.

The Republic should also lobby the Chinese to not enter a trade deal with the Poms and enter a belt and road agreement with them. The Irish could also provide China with preferential access to one of their deep water ports.

I'm sorry, my friend - but this is pure fantasy. First, Ireland *can't* agree anything, with anyone unilaterally. Even if they could, the whole of the EU 27 had a fight on their hands to prevent the dumping of cheap steel onto the market not long ago. Why on earth would they refuse to trade with a market of around 70 million at the behest of a market of less than 5 million customers?

Don't be under any illusuons that the EU have the Republic's best interests at heart. They are letting Greece and Italy rot rather than implementing any policy that would help them. They'll do nothing to alleviate any suffering that may befall the Irish.

Thanks Growler. At least two articles Ive read (one in the Guardian, the other I think was the Irish Times, suggested that the French were raising this as a possibility to stop English stuff being (inadvertently) shipped from Ireland. 

And yes EU will look after Ireland to some extent. As for unification, I think Brexit has pushed the possibility back. I think people go for change when the mood is positive. A lot of the really good things that have happened between NI and the Republic since Good Friday Agreement are at risk. The border had become invisible. People could access services across the border. Unhappily all this plays into the hands of crazy folk like the DUP and the modern day version of the Provos.

Both the french and the Irish are already having to spend big time on docks etc. I like the idea of the Irish offering the Chinese a base for their Navy.

[horace]

By the way, a few weeks ago China suspended negotiations with the Poms over a FTA, after some dill of a Minster insulted the Chinese.

Other countries have the whip hand in negotiations.

[Basil]

What was striking about yesterday's debate was, while the Brexit purists stuck to their mantra of the supposed opportunities of leaving the EU, their opponents were able to quote real world examples from people up at the sharp, about security implications and the likely effects on supply chains.

[Bradman]

Most supply chains are digital and easily adaptable.

[beamer]

Most supply chains are digital and easily adaptable.

You can’t deliver food and medicines digitally. Not unless they’ve perfected Willy Wonka’s “chocolate by TV” technology...

[Bradman]

No but you can track them. What did you think I was talking about, beaming goods across borders?

I reiterate this a is all bullshit to keep Britain in a customs union. There are different tax regimes between NI and the republic handled electronically, the EU already operates two digital systems for tracking and excise compliance purposes and it's almost impossible to get supply chain accreditation nowadays without digital or at least electronic systems in place. It would appear that the only people unaware of or unwilling to use existing tech aren't the sharp end operators including police, customs agencies and the import/export companies.

[Growler]

Most supply chains are digital and easily adaptable.

You can’t deliver food and medicines digitally. Not unless they’ve perfected Willy Wonka’s “chocolate by TV” technology...

THIS

says that whether we leave in a week with no deal, or get an extension ...

... medicines will not face a hold up. If they can't sort out a single-issue deal regarding medical supplies within hours, with no strings on the side - it will be irrefutable proof that the EU negotiators have no concern at all for ordinary citizens of UK and EU alike.

There's no conceivable reason that the UK would refuse to simply keep the current arrangements regarding licencing, standards and supply of medical products of any kind. I think Bradders is right on this one.

[horace]

EU extending deadline until 2020 with provision for an earlier orderly departure if the English can agree among themselves.

I love how the media describe May's 'dashes' to the mainland. The image of the PM dashing anywhere is at odds with the spilled treacle speed at which she is handling the crisis.

Her position now seems untenable.

Corbyn is playing for an election. He seems to be running a customs union proposal in the talks with May and her Maybots. The Rees-Moggies and a large number of Tories seem severely pi55ed off at this development.

[skully]

Corbyn is playing for an election. He seems to be running a customs union proposal in the talks with May and her Maybots.

To me this has been the case from Day 1. To put the financial and social well-being of your country at peril for some notional political endgame is bloody-mindedness at its worst.

[horace]

Corbyn is playing for an election. He seems to be running a customs union proposal in the talks with May and her Maybots.

To me this has been the case from Day 1. To put the financial and social well-being of your country at peril for some notional political endgame is bloody-mindedness at its worst.

No argument from me Skully. However he is not on his Pat Malone. Boris, Rees-Moggie, the DUP and the Maybot can all be charged with blood mindedness. I have sympathy for none of the Tories or Labour people and contempt for Murdoch and Nigel Farrago.

My immediate concern is for the Scots and the Irish (in both NI and the Republic) and really for stability in Europe. The English are proven war mongers and the nationalistic bellicosity promoted by the right augurs authoritarianism in an economically distressed Pomgolia.

[Bradman]

Maybe that's what it's all about. Ancient square up. I mean if you take the Napoleonic Wars as one and discount the bloody nose in Russia after big mistake 1, the British have been the dominant force in Europe for quite a while. Anyway no-one is voting for the current withdrawal agreement.

[JGK]

Corbyn is playing for an election. He seems to be running a customs union proposal in the talks with May and her Maybots.

To me this has been the case from Day 1. To put the financial and social well-being of your country at peril for some notional political endgame is bloody-mindedness at its worst.

There are plenty on both sides who can be accused of that in this whole mess.

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