Re: ICC World Twenty20, 2009 - Group B

by Henry Mon 08 Jun 2009, 07:00

It's all very well Younis Khan saying, "It's no big deal, it's just a game of cricket" after every Pakistani loss, but if the captain doesn't give a f*ck, then why will the other players?

by buckSH Mon 08 Jun 2009, 07:03

well he can't help if he doesn't have the firepower to get the job done ?

genx of pakistan's cricket is turning out to be woefully inadequate.

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 07:11

Henry wrote:I'm enjoying this tournament more than I enjoyed the IPL. Mark Nicholas not commentating and ejaculating over everything that happens on the field probably has something to do with it.

But the amount of mindless faffing about doesn't help. When the Scot/NZ match was shortened to 7 a side, there was still a delay for national anthems and the cheerleaders 'entertainment', and the break between innings seemed to be longer than either innings, and a load more BS before the Aus/WIn game started. They could have got 15 overs a side in for the first match without delaying any of the subsequent fixtures. But it's not exactly about the fans, is it? The advertising dollar is priority number one.

by taipan Mon 08 Jun 2009, 07:19

I'm missing the "DLF maximum"

by PeterCS Mon 08 Jun 2009, 09:50

Dello wrote:Well, they had to go down to give them the possibility of bouncebackability.

It's all part of a plan.

Used to be true of Jordan too. But then Peter got in the way.

by jim rich Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:26

Pretty good performance by England. Didn't think they'd bounce back in such fashion. I still maintain Rashid is rubbish, at least for now, and will be shown up by any team with a little more balance towards the required result. The batters finally showed up at the party with, IMO, Luke Wright actually winning not only the battle but the war. KP finally did what he was there to do.....Achilles and all.

With the exception of Gul, Pakistan's attack is mediocre, both in pace and spin. TBH, with their fielding resembling the gates of Lahore, I wouldn't be surprised if NL had another field day. They fielded excellently the last time around and Nannes will cause the Paksters some headaches. If they want to proceed to the super 8s, their margin of victory will have to be in the region of 55/60 runs or ca. 6/7 wickets, keeping in mind the Dutch have a +0.05 going into their next game and Pakistan a deficit of -2.5 on the NRR. They might make it, but I don't see it.

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:29

jim rich wrote:If they want to proceed to the super 8s, their margin of victory will have to be in the region of 55/60 runs or ca. 6/7 wickets

Bullshit. Wickets won't come into it. Thanks for sharing your well-thought-out knowledge with us again.

They'll either have to bat first and keep the Dutchies to substantially less, or bat second and chase the runs down well inside the 20 overs.

Edit: Wickets could come into it. If, and only if, the two teams finish one equal NRR. From the official rules of teh comp:
In the event of teams finishing on equal points in its Group, the
right to play in the Super Eight Series will be decided in the
following order of priority:
• The team with the more wins in the Group stage will be
placed in the higher position.
• If there are teams with equal points and equal wins in
the Group stage then in such case the team with the
higher net run rate in the Group stage will be placed in
the higher position (refer to clause 21.9.5 below for the
calculation of net run rate).
• If following the net run rate calculation above there are
teams which are still equal, then the team with the
higher number of wickets taken per balls bowled in the
Group stage in which results were achieved will be
placed in the higher position.
• If still equal, the team which was the winner of the head
to head match played between them will be placed in
the higher position.
• In the highly unlikely event that teams cannot be
separated by the above this will be done by drawing
lots.

by jim rich Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:37

Nutcase, what is the margin of victory, if Pakistan bat second - in general terms? Get that finger out of your arse, Zat. Laughing

What if they took the full twenty overs to chase the set score with only a wicket or two down?

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:39

It won't matter if Pakistan win by one wicket or ten wickets jim.

Pakistan, if they bat second, will have to chase down the target in, probably, around 14 or 15 overs.

by jim rich Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:43

by Merlin Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:46

jim rich wrote:Nutcase, what is the margin of victory, if Pakistan bat second - in general terms? Get that finger out of your arse, Zat.
What if they took the full twenty overs to chase the set score with only a wicket or two down?

Doesn't matter a jot.
It's ALL based on net run rate.

Lump on Holland qualifying for the super 8's - it's almost a done deal - whether they win or lose.

by jim rich Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:54

What are the factors that are involved in calculating the NRR, merlin? - Just a question.

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 11:57

OK, let's make it simple for jim.

• If there are teams with equal points and equal wins in the Group stage then in such case the team with the higher net run rate in the Group stage will be placed in the higher position

At the moment, Pakistan has a Net Run Rate that is 2.45 runs per over worse than the Netherlands. This means that Pakistan has to improve it's NRR by roughly 1.23, which would reduce the Dutch NRR by a similar amount.

For the sake of simplicity, if the Dutch bat first and score 100 off their 20 overs, that would take their batting run rate for the tournament to 6.625 RPO.

Pakistan would need to improve their NRR to something superior to the Dutch's.

Pakistan chasing down 100 off the entire 20 overs would make their batting run rate 5.95, compared to a bowling run rate of 7.125, so an overall NRR of -1.175, while the Dutch would have an NRR of (6.625 - 6.575 =) 0.05.

The number of wickets Pakistan lose is immaterial. It will be how quickly they score the runs if they bat second.

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:00

There are too many variables for me to plot it out. I could if I was suitably motivated, but I'm on holidays, and I've had a few bourbons, so can't be arsed.

Roughly speaking, if the Dutch bat first, Pakistan will probably have to score the runs in about 14 or 15 overs at an estimate.

If Pakistan bat second, then the dutch will probably only have to score about 75% of the match target to qualify for the S8s.

And that's an Australian education that provided me with the ability to work that out, jim...

by Merlin Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:01

What are the factors that are involved in calculating the NRR, merlin? - Just a question.

Jim -
As far as I can gather ... divide the deficit between the opponents scores by the number of overs used.

As an Example ... take the SAf vs Bangla game...
SAf scored 180 in 20 Bangla scored 155 in 20.

The diff was 25 runs... divided by 20 overs = +1.25 to SAf and -1.25 to Bangla.

by skully Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:01

Noice explaino, Zog. Still a bit rich for jim, though. ICC World Twenty20, 2009 - Group B - Page 13 Foxes_6

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:03

NRR - the batting run rate of the team minus the bowling run rate of the same team.

If a team is bowled out in less than 20 overs, then their batting run rate shall be considered their toatl divided by the full 20 overs.

by Merlin Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:04

What the Clogs ought to do is bat first and score 120 all out in 10 overs Very Happy

Guaranteed super 8 spot!

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:05

Actually, I just worked it out that if Pakistan bat first, the Dutch target will be 25 less than the Pakis, regardless of how many Pakistan score.

It won't matter if Pakistan score 150 or 280. The 25 run differential would mean Pakistan’s NRR would end up at -0.575 while the Dutch NRR wold fall to -0.6

Give me a minute or two and I'll have something more concrete on what happens if the Pakis bat second.

by The One Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:06

Merlin wrote:What the Clogs ought to do is bat first and score 120 all out in 10 overs
Guaranteed super 8 spot!

oh dear

by jim rich Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:08

That's very nice of you, Zat, for explaining it to me. I admit I always thought the runs, overs and wickets mattered in the formula. I stand corrected.

Try being nice like that all the time, man. You're good at it and so un-Australian. Very Happy

by The One Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:09

Zat wrote:Actually, I just worked it out that if Pakistan bat first, the Dutch target will be 25 less than the Pakis, regardless of how many Pakistan score.

It won't matter if Pakistan score 150 or 280. The 25 run differential would mean Pakistan’s NRR would end up at -0.575 while the Dutch NRR wold fall to -0.6

Give me a minute or two and I'll have something more concrete on what happens if the Pakis bat second.

ICC World Twenty20, 2009 - Group B - Page 13 Pakned

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:09

OK, I cheated here. Couldn't be f*cked drawing the graph.

There's a really good blog post here.

Which includes this graph.

ICC World Twenty20, 2009 - Group B - Page 13 Pakistan

ICC World Twenty20, 2009 - Group B - Page 13 Pakistan

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:11

jim rich wrote:That's very nice of you, Zat, for explaining it to me. I admit I always thought the runs, overs and wickets mattered in the formula. I stand corrected.

Try being nice like that all the time, man. You're good at it and so un-Australian.

Jim, I'll be nicer to you if you're not so instantly anti-Aussie? Deal? boozin

by Zat Mon 08 Jun 2009, 12:12

And thanks to TO for posting the figures.

Here's another set from the blog I referred to before:

The first column being the Netherlands score and the second being the maximum number of overs that Pakistan can bat.

Neth Overs
0 14.3
10 14.5
20 15.0
30 15.2
40 15.3
50 15.4
60 15.5
70 16.0
80 16.1
90 16.2
100 16.3
110 16.4
120 16.4
130 16.5
140 17.0
150 17.0
160 17.1
170 17.1
180 17.2
190 17.2
200 17.2
210 17.3
220 17.3
230 17.4
240 17.4
250 17.4

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