Re: The UK General Election Thread

[Shoeshine]

Landslides are not typical of British Parliamentary results. The last 25 years or so has been historically unusual. The Tories will likely win with a smallish majority, say 50 or so. Perfectly workable.

[LeFromage]

I reckon we're heading for a hung parliament. People have grown disillusioned of the Labour party but few can bring themselves to vote for the Tories. The polls always exaggerate the popularity of the opposition party so expect their share to drop drastically come next May.

I was speaking to a senior civil servant recently and he was telling me how the mood in Whitehall at the moment is very similar to the last two years of John Major's term. Very little is getting done because everyone knows that the Government is on its last legs - but I don't see Cameron achieving anything close to Blair's landslide that followed.

Wouldn't mind a hung parliament.

Both major parties are utterly useless and untrustworthy - it makes some kind of poetic sense for neither of them to win.

[Gary 111]

Cameron will be good in a TV debate, and he knows it. That's why for the first time ever the party leader in the lead in the polls is happy to do it - because he doesn't think he'll have a prayer of losing.

It'll definitely happen too. No-one will want to take the flak for being the one to drop out and can the whole thing.

I don't see this being a great help to him though. No doubt he would be more eloquent and make lots of well prepared speeches - but its his and his parties integrity that is in doubt. He can do little to change that, especially following the public perception of Blair and Cameron's attempts to position himself as an heir to Blair.

Having witnessed the televised debates in the US last year it is amazing how much build-up and analysis there is for something that has very little effect. The politicians will skate around all the major issues and influence very few people. Those who were always going to vote for Cameron will no doubt say that he has won a major victory. The downside for him is that if he tries too hard to appeal to his followers he could well come across as far too smug and triumphalist and end up driving the (scarce few) floating voters who would be influenced by the TV Debate against him. If he doesn't pander to them he just ends up looking weak and woolly. Almost inevitably the politicians end up falling between the two stools, afraid of taking either approach.

[Basil]

I reckon we're heading for a hung parliament. People have grown disillusioned of the Labour party but few can bring themselves to vote for the Tories. The polls always exaggerate the popularity of the opposition party so expect their share to drop drastically come next May.

I was speaking to a senior civil servant recently and he was telling me how the mood in Whitehall at the moment is very similar to the last two years of John Major's term. Very little is getting done because everyone knows that the Government is on its last legs - but I don't see Cameron achieving anything close to Blair's landslide that followed.

It's a quirk of our electoral system that if Labour and the Tories in terms of the popular vote, Labour would win the larger number of seats. The Tories have to secure a large swing in their favour just to secure a majority of one. A single figure majority would not surprise me in the least.

Mind you, winning the next election will be a bit of a hospital pass, bearing in mind how much the new government will have to cut from public expenditure.

[JKLever]

The biggest problem I see for the Tories regarding the TV Debate is that they'll be running scared that the Liberals present themselves as a decent alternative.

[Basil]

Clegg's problem will be the inevitable question about which party he would support in the event of a hung parliament.

[Shoeshine]

The Lib Dems always conveniently forget that a big chunk of their vote is Labour or Conservative voters choosing them as the most likely to unseat the party they don't want in their constituency. So expect lots of bleating from Clegg about the unfairness of a system that in reality artificially inflates their national vote.

Oppositions rarely win elections, governments lose them. And whilst the media adore the speculation that a possible hung Parliament provides, in reality it remains unlikely. The public are sufficiently disenchanted with Labour that their vote is quite likely to stay at home. Most (but not all) opinion polls don't take that into account, and those that do suggest the gap is rather wider.

Hung Parliaments are incredibly unusual, and if we were to have one (and I still doubt it), you'd have another election a few months later, like in 1974.

[Guest]

If (when) Cameron becomes PM he'll inherit a horrid mess - 2.7 million on the dole, huge debts, unrelenting casualties from Afghanistan. He'll be in the mire in under a year.

[Guest]

Or perhaps your canvassing took you through muggers, thieves, burglars, dole merchants and con artists who all seemed to have thrived this past decade with absolute immunity!

Nope, a lot of them get put in prison. Trouble is, we have so few jail cells that the judges cannot give out long sentences - there is simply nowhere to put them for very long.

I'd build a load more jails, except that they cost zillions to run and we'll have to put taxes up again.

Well, they could start by getting rid of the luxuries and actually treating them like the criminals they are, that would cut costs a fair bit...

There's a school of thought that says that if you treat people humanely, they become more human.

What luxuries, anyway? Have you been in a London nick? They are all horrible Victorian piles with limited education and health care facilities. Two men to a tiny cell, no privacy when you take a dump, freezing in winter, baking in summer, very little to do all day except sleep.

[Basil]

If the Tories were returned with a ehopping majority - just watch the Thatcherite knuckle-draggers emerge from under whatever rock they've been hiding under since 1997.

[Shoeshine]

If (when) Cameron becomes PM he'll inherit a horrid mess - 2.7 million on the dole, huge debts, unrelenting casualties from Afghanistan. He'll be in the mire in under a year.

That depends on how he handles it. I suspect that right now people are quite aware of the present situation and aren't going to simply blame any incoming government for it.

[Guest]

If the Tories were returned with a ehopping majority - just watch the Thatcherite knuckle-draggers emerge from under whatever rock they've been hiding under since 1997.

I wonder will the reabsorb the BNP, as the Tories did to the old NF in 1979?

[Guest]

If (when) Cameron becomes PM he'll inherit a horrid mess - 2.7 million on the dole, huge debts, unrelenting casualties from Afghanistan. He'll be in the mire in under a year.

That depends on how he handles it. I suspect that right now people are quite aware of the present situation and aren't going to simply blame any incoming government for it.

But most people are Sun-readers with no memory and no patience.

[Basil]

If (when) Cameron becomes PM he'll inherit a horrid mess - 2.7 million on the dole, huge debts, unrelenting casualties from Afghanistan. He'll be in the mire in under a year.

That depends on how he handles it. I suspect that right now people are quite aware of the present situation and aren't going to simply blame any incoming government for it.

In normal times - an incoming government would probably have an 18 month honeymoon when it can do pretty much what it likes and get away with it. But in tackling the huge public debt - the new government is going to make lots of people unemployed - expect its honeymoon period to be very shortlived.

[Shoeshine]

If (when) Cameron becomes PM he'll inherit a horrid mess - 2.7 million on the dole, huge debts, unrelenting casualties from Afghanistan. He'll be in the mire in under a year.

That depends on how he handles it. I suspect that right now people are quite aware of the present situation and aren't going to simply blame any incoming government for it.

In normal times - an incoming government would probably have an 18 month honeymoon when it can do pretty much what it likes and get away with it. But in tackling the huge public debt - the new government is going to make lots of people unemployed - expect its honeymoon period to be very shortlived.

I doubt there'll be a honeymoon period at all. All sides will be talking about the situation being serious, and there's every chance the Tories will get away with blaming Labour for all ills for quite a while. They'll have up to 5 years to show some improvement.

[Merlin]

If the Tories were returned with a ehopping majority - just watch the Thatcherite knuckle-draggers emerge from under whatever rock they've been hiding under since 1997.

I wonder will the reabsorb the BNP, as the Tories did to the old NF in 1979?

Jesus !
Talk about rabid lefties on this forum ..... !!

Give Cameron's government a chance FFS.
They haven't even been elected yet and already we are all doomed according to you lot!

This Blair/Brown lot have raped, pillaged and generally royally f**ked up this country for the last 12 years - putting Major's sleezey lot to absolute shame with Labour sleeze bordering on X factor status... !!

Hey Baz ... I'm one of those that's been hiding under a rock for the past 12 years ... and bloody proud of it!

[Brass Monkey]

You would be Lever, you seem the type. I'm a f*cking nihilist. None of the above. I say we trash this place and rebuild the wreckage.

[Shoeshine]

If the Tories were returned with a ehopping majority - just watch the Thatcherite knuckle-draggers emerge from under whatever rock they've been hiding under since 1997.

I wonder will the reabsorb the BNP, as the Tories did to the old NF in 1979?

That is a pretty ridiculous thing to say Rob. Ridiculous and without a shred of truth in it.

[taipan]

If the Tories were returned with a ehopping majority - just watch the Thatcherite knuckle-draggers emerge from under whatever rock they've been hiding under since 1997.

I wonder will the reabsorb the BNP, as the Tories did to the old NF in 1979?

That is a pretty ridiculous thing to say Rob. Ridiculous and without a shred of truth in it.

Welcome to Rob's World

[Merlin]

Or perhaps your canvassing took you through muggers, thieves, burglars, dole merchants and con artists who all seemed to have thrived this past decade with absolute immunity!

Nope, a lot of them get put in prison. Trouble is, we have so few jail cells that the judges cannot give out long sentences - there is simply nowhere to put them for very long.

I'd build a load more jails, except that they cost zillions to run and we'll have to put taxes up again.

Well, they could start by getting rid of the luxuries and actually treating them like the criminals they are, that would cut costs a fair bit...

There's a school of thought that says that if you treat people humanely, they become more human.

What luxuries, anyway? Have you been in a London nick? They are all horrible Victorian piles with limited education and health care facilities. Two men to a tiny cell, no privacy when you take a dump, freezing in winter, baking in summer, very little to do all day except sleep.

And you expect what exactly Rob?
Hilton 5* luxury with warm loo seat and hot running water 24/7?

They all had a choice ... they chose crime.
Suck it up.
The End.

[Brass Monkey]

Bawdy, twattish and overtly conservative - whoa, that was merlin??? F*ck off. Will never, ever believe you.

[Shoeshine]

Bawdy, twattish and overtly conservative - whoa, that was merlin??? F*ck off. Will never, ever believe you.

I'm no Tory, but Labour have comprehensively f*cked up things, from the handling of the economy to their determination to demolish all elements of our liberty and impose a Big Brother state. They deserve to be smashed at the election, they're as undeserving of office as John Major's Conservatives were in 1997.

[taipan]

Or perhaps your canvassing took you through muggers, thieves, burglars, dole merchants and con artists who all seemed to have thrived this past decade with absolute immunity!

Nope, a lot of them get put in prison. Trouble is, we have so few jail cells that the judges cannot give out long sentences - there is simply nowhere to put them for very long.

I'd build a load more jails, except that they cost zillions to run and we'll have to put taxes up again.

Well, they could start by getting rid of the luxuries and actually treating them like the criminals they are, that would cut costs a fair bit...

There's a school of thought that says that if you treat people humanely, they become more human.

What luxuries, anyway? Have you been in a London nick? They are all horrible Victorian piles with limited education and health care facilities. Two men to a tiny cell, no privacy when you take a dump, freezing in winter, baking in summer, very little to do all day except sleep.

And you expect what exactly Rob?
Hilton 5* luxury with warm loo seat and hot running water 24/7?

They all had a choice ... they chose crime.
Suck it up.
The End.

Isn't transportation an option?

[Brass Monkey]

I'm no Tory, but Labour have comprehensively f*cked up things, from the handling of the economy to their determination to demolish all elements of our liberty and impose a Big Brother state. They deserve to be smashed at the election, they're as undeserving of office as John Major's Conservatives were in 1997.

I don't disagree with you, I wasn't particularly on about a merlin party political broadcast. However, I have no faith in the Tories at all. Doesn't mean I have faith in Labour either. It's same, same, but different for me. They can all f*ck themselves. The fact that people are displaying Cameron as the great new hope makes me sick to the pit of my stomach. Give me the indications that the Tories have a good manifesto - all I've seen is childish mud-slinging that now counts at a political statement in the most 'McPolitics' way.

[Shoeshine]

I'm no Tory, but Labour have comprehensively f*cked up things, from the handling of the economy to their determination to demolish all elements of our liberty and impose a Big Brother state. They deserve to be smashed at the election, they're as undeserving of office as John Major's Conservatives were in 1997.

I don't disagree with you, I wasn't particularly on about a merlin party political broadcast. However, I have no faith in the Tories at all. Doesn't mean I have faith in Labour either. It's same, same, but different for me. They can all f*ck themselves. The fact that people are displaying Cameron as the great new hope makes me sick to the pit of my stomach. Give me the indications that the Tories have a good manifesto - all I've seen is childish mud-slinging that now counts at a political statement in the most 'McPolitics' way.

Er, well that's because no manifesto has been released yet. Nor will it be till the election is called - same as for Labour.

Some very sensible stuff though, a commitment to cut spending (like it or not, we have to do it), scrapping of the NIR database and ID cards themselves, scrapping of the NHS database, abiding by the ECHR ruling on DNA retention, a commitment not to reduce defence spending but to slash the number of civil servants, scrapping of quangos.....pretty good start really.

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