Re: The UK General Election Thread

by Basil Sat 24 Apr 2010, 21:37

A Tory minority is probably the least worst of outcomes - at least it should keep the Thatcher fanboys in their hutch.

by Allan D Sat 24 Apr 2010, 22:46

Looks like the beginnings of a possible meltdown for Labour as they lose seats to both the Tories and the Lib Dems. If disillusioned Labour voters switch to Lib Dems in Lab-Con marginals they could hand the seat to the Conservatives without the Tory vote increasing simply due to the Labour vote going down. This is how Mrs Thatcher increased the Tory majority from 43 to 146 when the Lib/SDP took 25.4% of the vote (+11.6) compared to Labour's 27.6% (-9.3) in the 1983 election despite the Tory share of the vote falling by 1.5%.

Although the polls still point to a Conservative minority government (the idea that Labour could still come third in the popular vote and have the largest number of seats is now beginning to look a little far-fetched) if the Conservatives can maintain their current improvement for the rest of the campaign (caused I think by making the case that a hung Parliament will not create the conditions for political or economic stability - Ken Clarke's intervention - agree with it or not - was critical here) then there is the possibility of a Conservative majority of 10-20 by polling day.

The worst news for Labour today is that Gordon Brown is going to be given "a bigger role" in the campaign. Talk about bringing on your crappiest player to bowl. Not since the late-lamented Worzel Gummidge strode the land in his donkey jacket, walking stick in hand, in 1983, has the smell of defeat so pervaded Labour:

RIP New Labour - died 6 May 2010
The body will be burned and the ashes taken to Trimdon Labour Club.

by lardbucket Sun 25 Apr 2010, 00:56

Anyone standing for the Monster Raving Loony Party this time?

by LeFromage Sun 25 Apr 2010, 00:59

Basil wrote:Shed load of polls out tonight - most put the Tories on or around 35%, Labour anything from 25 - 30% and Lib Dems on around 30% - apart from one for the News Of The World, which puts the Lib Dems on 23% - they haven't registered anything that low since before the forst debate - so I'm tempted to call that one a rogue.

News of the Murdoch publishing a rogue poll which hypes up their preferred candidate?

Give over.

by Zat Sun 25 Apr 2010, 01:09

by lardbucket Sun 25 Apr 2010, 01:11

yes, well found

by lardbucket Sun 25 Apr 2010, 01:14

'It's largely as I predicted, except the Silly Party won'

Karti was a Python!

by JKLever Sun 25 Apr 2010, 02:02

Latest polls...

COMRES CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2)
ICM CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 31%(+1)
MORI CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 23%(-9) Rogue?
YOUGOV CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 28% (-1)
BPIX CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 30%(-2)

Cons need to take back a few floating voters who've been swayed by the fluffy LibDems...

by Allan D Sun 25 Apr 2010, 09:29

Which they seem to be doing in all but the ComRes poll - still half the campaign left.

by Allan D Sun 25 Apr 2010, 09:42

This from UK Polling Report:

Taking a wider look at the polls, the Conservatives do seem to have recovered slightly over the week. After the first debate the pollsters seemed to be consistently putting them in the 31%-33% range, the polls conducted over the last two days (seven of them!) all have the Conservatives between 34%-36%.

The Lib Dem surge looks as though it may have peaked too. The Ipsos MORI poll showing a huge drop is probably meaningless, it looks like a rogue, and a lot of the fall will just be down to the sample being less-Lib Dem inclined (10% of the survey reported voting Lib Dem in 2005, compared to 13% in MORI’s previous poll. Unlike most other companies MORI do not weight by past vote, so it varies from sample to sample). However, the other polls still seem to be showing a slight drop – after four polls in a row showing them over 30%, YouGov have now had them below 30% for three in a row… not, of course, that we don’t still seem to be headed towards the Liberal Democrats best ever performance.

There is also a OnePoll survey in The People which has figures of CON 32%, LAB 23%, LDEM 32%. I do not have any information on whether OnePoll surveys use proper sampling or appropriate weighting, so cannot vouch for whether this is meaningful at all.

UK Polling Report

by JKLever Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:31

Anyone watch Cleggs interview with Andrew Marr today?

Quite cleverly, although he didn't say it directly he was saying the only deal with a Labour party which comes in 3rd would be with him as PM.

by beamer Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:34

Will be interesting if the order of the three main parties in terms of seats and vote percentage is not the same. I take it the leader of the party with most seats gets the first invitation to form a government, although that party could be second or even third in the popular vote?

by LeFromage Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:50

Tomorrow's YouGov/Sun poll: Cons: 34% ( - ), Libs: 30% (+1), Lab: 28% (-1)

A Nick Clegg's wife's broken her arm (is he married to Thomas Sorensen?). Which may or may not trump SamCam's bun in the oven in the "Ahhh, bless" stakes.

by LeFromage Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:52

JKLever wrote:Anyone watch Cleggs interview with Andrew Marr today?

Quite cleverly, although he didn't say it directly he was saying the only deal with a Labour party which comes in 3rd would be with him as PM.

Brown's out, whatever the outcome of the election (unless Labour somehow win outright, which is looking about as likely as a Chris Martin hundred against the late 70s West Indies on a green top).

Nicely shoe-horned in a cricket reference there. Well played, me.

by JKLever Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:57

beamer wrote:Will be interesting if the order of the three main parties in terms of seats and vote percentage is not the same. I take it the leader of the party with most seats gets the first invitation to form a government, although that party could be second or even third in the popular vote?

Not necessarily - if there is a hung parliament with no party getting a majority its up for grabs. The tories could get most seats but if Brown does a deal with the Libs they wouldn't get a say in the matter if a combined Lab/Lib effort got more than 326 seats.

by JKLever Sun 25 Apr 2010, 22:59

Dello wrote:
Brown's out, whatever the outcome of the election (unless Labour somehow win outright, which is looking about as likely as a Chris Martin hundred against the late 70s West Indies on a green top).

Prime Minister Johnson
Prime Minister Miliband
Prime Minister Mandelson
Prime Minister Clegg
Prime Minister Tory Boy

Any of those 5 could become PM in the next 11 days.

by Guest Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:04

So it's either a buffoon, a schoolboy, satan, the messiah or elvis.

by LeFromage Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:05

Who the f*ck would deal with Mandy? Unless you're thinking of a different Johnson, that numb-nutted postie wouldn't get anyone's backing either.

Suspect Miliband (D) is the next in line to lead Labour, but if he's smart he'll probably leave it a few years for the public dislike to drop off. They'll have to install an interim sucker to take the fall up to and including the next election.

by Guest Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:10

One thing is for sure, this election will make the next series of The Thick of it very exciting.

by JKLever Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:11

Mandelson could pull rank in the party. I don't think for a minute it will happen though.

Don't think you have to be a constituency holder to be nominated party leader.

by Allan D Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:32

Afraid you do according to Labour Party rules although there's nothing to stop Mandleson from being PM although no PM has sat in the House of Lords since Lord Salisbury in 1902 (Home renounced his peerage and went back to the House of Commons after a bye-election).

by Gary 111 Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:34

With a bit of luck the yellow surge will soak us all.....

If Mandy did become PM (which I don't think would happen) would he be the first gay PM in Britain?

by beamer Sun 25 Apr 2010, 23:36

Don't know how it would work in practice, would be impractical for a PM/major party leader to not be in the House of Commons - I suppose the most obvious method if someone in that position wanted to contest the leadership would be for one of their supporters to resign a safe seat to get the preferred candidate (having renounced their peerage if necessary) back in?

by LeFromage Mon 26 Apr 2010, 00:13

vilkrang wrote:One thing is for sure, this election will make the next series of The Thick of it very exciting.

Actually, it could be the writers' worst nightmare. The previous series they seemed to be setting things up nicely for a smooth switch over to a Tory government (focusing more on the excellent and in-no-way Ken Clarke Peter Manion).

Doubt they've planned for a possible requirement for all three main parties to be represented...

by Allan D Mon 26 Apr 2010, 00:32

Gary 111 wrote:With a bit of luck the yellow surge will soak us all.....

If Mandy did become PM (which I don't think would happen) would he be the first gay PM in Britain?

There were rumours about A.J.Balfour (1902-5) who succeeded his 'Uncle Bob' Salisbury as PM. A confirmed bachelor, he was nicknamed 'Fanny' from his Cambridge days and constantly carried a nosegay to ward off the odours of the London streets. He enjoyed the company of pretty young women throughout his life, however, and was popular with them although there is no evidence that he carried matters any further.

Disraeli (PM 1868, 1874-80), as a young man, was rumoured to have had a liaison with his patron, Lord Lyndhurst, as well as Lord Lyndhurst's wife, a much younger woman, but these rumours were all furiously denied by all three parties.

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