Re: The UK General Election Thread (II)

[Guest]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

[Allan D]

Election stats from UK Polling Report:

Seats where the Conservative share fell

There were 75 seats where the Conservative share of the vote fell. Their biggest falls were Westmorland and Lonsdale (the effect of Tim Farron building up a mountainous personal vote), Bromsgrove (presumably the result of Julie Kirkbride’s expenses – though there were two other cases of ethnic minority Conservative candidates inheriting safe seats and receiving a lower share of vote), Sheffield Hallam (the Clegg factor no doubt), Folkestone and Hythe (probably the loss of Michael Howard’s personal vote as leader), Castle Point (where the former Conservative MP Bob Spink split their vote).

Biggest Conservative increases

The biggest Conservative increase was 16% in Hartlepool, taking second place from the Liberal Democrats (probably the by-election factor slowly unwinding), followed by Montgomeryshire (where Lembit Opik fell), Esher and Walton, Crewe and Nantwich (the by-election effect), Cardiff Central (a strange one there, the Conservatives are in third place), Camborne and Redruth (unseating Julia Goldsworthy from third place).

Seats where the Labour vote rose

There were 80 seats where Labour increased their share of the vote – over half of these were in Scotland, many others were seats with a large Muslim population where the Iraq war effect in 2005 seemed to reverse somewhat. The biggest increases in Labour’s vote were Blaenau Gwent, where they reclaimed the seat from the Independent MP, East Ham and West Ham (where Respect performed well in 2005 but did not stand in 2010), Glenrothes (after the successful by-election defence), Dunbartonshire West, Edinburgh West (where they took second place from the Conservatives) and Bethnal Green and Bow (another of the three Labour Gains).

Biggest Labour falls

The biggest drop in the Labour vote was 24% in Barnsley East, a seat so safe they probably barely felt it. The main beneficiary there was a new BNP candidate. This was followed by Hemel Hempstead (putting them into 3rd place in a seat they held till 2005), Redcar, Don Valley (making Caroline Flint’s seat a marginal – the votes went to new BNP, UKIP and English Democrat candidates), Norfolk North West (where their candidate went spectacularly off message in the days before the election), Cannock Chase (the “safest” Labour seat that was won by the Conservatives) and Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Yvette Cooper’s seat).

Biggest Lib Dem increases

Three seats stand out with huge increases in their vote – most notably the incredible performance in Redcar, Mo Mowlam’s old seat, which fell on a 21.8% swing, wiping out a 31% majority – presumably on the back of the mothballing of the Corus steelworks. Almost as large was the increase in the Lib Dem vote in Ashfield, Geoff Hoon’s old seat inherited by Gloria de Piero, which the Lib Dems only narrowly missed out on. Less remarked upon was a 17% increase in the Lib Dem vote in Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. After that the best performances were Dunfermline and Fife (by-election factor, though not enough to hold the seat), Westmoreland and Lonsdale (the Tim Farron effect), Ceredigion, Maidstone and the Weald, Brent Central (Sarah Teather gambling on going for the difficult option when her seat was abolished… and making the right choice).

Worst Lib Dem peformances

The biggest drop was Orpington, where they lost whatever following their candidate Chris Maines had built up after fighting the seat hard at multiple elections. Following that their worst performances were Edinburgh West, Hartlepool (fading by-election effect), Montgomeryshire (Lembit Opik) and Haltemprice and Howden.

Biggest swings from Lab => Conservative

36 seats had a swing from Labour to Conservative of over 10%. The biggest were Hemel Hempstead (CON HOLD – 14.4%), Cannock Chase (CON GAIN – 14%), Barnsley East (LAB HOLD – 13.9%), Crewe and Nantwich (CON “GAIN” – 13.7%), Norwich North (CON “GAIN” – 12.9%), Hartlepool (LAB HOLD – 12.8%), Sittingbourne and Sheppey (CON “HOLD” – 12.7%). The biggest swings in the other direction were Blaenau Gwent (-7.7) and East Ham (-7.7).

Biggest swings from Lab => LD

There were 29 seats with a swing from Labour to Lib Dem. The biggest were Redcar (LD GAIN – 21.8 ), Ashfield (LAB HOLD – 17.2), Merthyr Tydfil (LAB HOLD – 16.9), Barnsley East (LAB HOLD – 14), St Albans (CON HOLD – 13.8 ), Bosworth (CON HOLD – 13.8 ), Norfolk North West (CON HOLD – 13.3). Note some of those movements beneath the surface where the Conservative MPs vote remained pretty unchanged but the Lib Dems overtook Labour and took a strong second place on large Lab=>LD swings. The biggest swings in the other direction were mostly in Scotland, the largest were Edinburgh West (-11.3), Orpington (-9.5) and Paisley and Renfrewshire North (-8 ).

Biggest swings between Con and LD

The largest swings from LD to Con were Hartlepool, Montgomeryshire, Orpington, St Ives and Cardiff Central. The biggest swings in the other direction were Redcar, Westmoreland and Lonsdale, Ashfield and Dunfermline and Fife.

Highest shares and lost deposits

The Conservatives won 125 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Richmond Yorkshire (62.8%), Beaconsfield (61.1%) and Windsor (60.9%). They lost their deposit in two seats, Glasgow East (4.5%) and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (4.4%).
Labour won 76 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Liverpool Walton (72%), Knowsley (70.9%), East Ham (70.4%). They lost their deposit in 5 seats, all tight LD-v-Con marginals: Eastbourne (4.8%), Somerton and Frome (4.4%), Newbury (4.3%), Cornwall North (4.2%), Westmorland and Lonsdale (2.3%).
The Liberal Democrats won 12 seats with over 50% of the vote. The highest were Orkney and Shetland (62%), Westmorland and Lonsdale (60%), Bath (56.7%). They managed to save all their deposits, with their lowest share of the vote being Glasgow East (5%).

Minor parties and Independents

The BNP saved 72 deposits. Their strongest performances were Barking, Dagenham and Rotherham. UKIP saved 98 deposits, their strongest performances were Buckingham, Boston and Skegness and Christchurch. The Green party saved 7 deposits – their best performance was obviously Brighton Pavilion, followed by Norwich South.
The English Democrats put up 107 candidates and saved 1 deposit in Doncaster North (5.2%). The Christian party put up 70 candidates, and lost all their deposits. Their highest vote was 1.8% in Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey.
The highest votes for Independents and others were obviously Buckingham, Wyre Forest, Castle Point (where Bob Spink did surprisingly well for a former MP standing as an Independent) and Blaenau Gwent. Less obvious strong performances came in Makerfield, Mansfield, Hemsworth, West Ham, Dewsbury and Sleaford and North Hykeham.

Safest seats, closest marginals

The safest seats are Liverpool Walton (Lab, 57.7%), Knowsley (Lab, 57.5%), Liverpool West Derby (Lab, 56.2%). The safest Lib Dem seat in Orkney and Shetland (51.3%). The safest Conservative seat is Richmond Yorkshire (43.7%). There are 40 seats with majorities under 1000, including 5 with majorities under 100 – Thurrock (92), Bolton West (92), Camborne and Redruth (66), Warwickshire North (54), Hampstead and Kilburn (42). All the figures on this post are based only on Great Britain – in Northern Ireland we had the narrowest majority of all, 4 votes in Fermanagh and South Tyrone.

[JKLever]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

At a time when the defecit is national priority number one I truly believe both parties need to seek a common ground and put electoral reform on the backburner.

Apparently Clegg & Cameron had a 70 minute talk alone tonight.

[PeterCS]

Get a room, you two.

[Basil]

Get a room, you two.

Perhaps "talk" is a euphemism

[LeFromage]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

At a time when the defecit is national priority number one I truly believe both parties need to seek a common ground and put electoral reform on the backburner.

Apparently Clegg & Cameron had a 70 minute talk alone tonight.

I just don't see how the Libs can align themselves with the Tories when their position on the economy - the key issue at this moment in time - is diametrically opposed with Genuine Dave's planned immediate cut-a-thon.

Labour should sack Brown immediately. And as they can't install a new party leader without an internal election, offer the Libs a coalition - with their own leader given the position at the head of the table.

Clegg's ego wouldn't allow him to turn down the opportunity to be PM, even if it was PM with a massive asterisk and about as much credibility as Cameron's love of "the Radiohead".

It'd be a cluster-f*ck, everyone would hate it, but amusing nevertheless.

[ten years after]

[

2 million more votes than Labour.
96 seats gained.
Swings between 4 to 11 % from Labour to Tory.
Largest number of seats acquired (306) - beating Thatcher's and Blair's landslides ...

Where did that stat come from? Blair won 418, 412 and 355 seats in his three elections. Thatcher won 339, 397 and 375 in hers.

This is the lowest number of seats won by the 'winner' of an election since 1974. Wilson won 301 seats (out of 635) then which is pretty much the same as 306 out of 650. Wilson got 37% of the vote BTW. Labour staggered into a majority in parliament a few months later but was unable to pursue an effective agenda during a period of economic crisis (sound familiar).

[Basil]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

Not at all, "Electoral Reform" is an important part of "Political Reform" and should not be seen in isolation.

[Allan D]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

At a time when the defecit is national priority number one I truly believe both parties need to seek a common ground and put electoral reform on the backburner.

Apparently Clegg & Cameron had a 70 minute talk alone tonight.

I just don't see how the Libs can align themselves with the Tories when their position on the economy - the key issue at this moment in time - is diametrically opposed with Genuine Dave's planned immediate cut-a-thon.

Labour should sack Brown immediately. And as they can't install a new party leader without an internal election, offer the Libs a coalition - with their own leader given the position at the head of the table.

Clegg's ego wouldn't allow him to turn down the opportunity to be PM, even if it was PM with a massive asterisk and about as much credibility as Cameron's love of "the Radiohead".

It'd be a cluster-f*ck, everyone would hate it, but amusing nevertheless.

Yes, and Mark Pettini will doubtless be appointed England captain in the fullness of time. Since you've recently given up your own position of leadership here recently you've either been at the magic mushrooms or you're trying to arrange the production of a NSR card. The idea that a leader of 54 MPs who had lost seats at the election could make a credible Prime Minister especially of a fractious Lab-Lib coalition which still did not have an overall majority in the Commons is, frankly, bonkers.

Clegg would make Ramsay Macdonald presiding over the 'National' Government in 1931-5 look a strong Prime Minister and I doubt such an arrangement would last 5 minutes let alone 5 years. The time to sack Brown, as with Foot in 1983 and Kinnock in 1992, was before the election not after it. It's a little bit late in the day now as far as Labour is concerned. As we have learnt that there is no constitutional procedure for sacking the Prime Minister, even after his party has lost almost 100 seats in the election to the principal opposition party, so there is no procedure for removing the Labour Party leader unless someone is prepared to challenge him this autumn (assuming he goes into opposition) and there is no evidence that anyone wishes to play Brutus to an increasingly deluded and reality-detached Caesar.

Also, the evidence from both political parties is that he who wields the knife almost never gets to wear the crown. You are also quite wrong to say the Lib-Dems are diametrically opposed to the Tories on the economy - both are opposed to the increase in NI contributions which Brown and Darling are proposing to bring in next year as the principal means for dealing with the deficit. Both are in favour of substantially raising the tax threshold - the Tories to £5000, the Lib Dems to £10000. The point of difference is not one of principle but of figures.

Both are opposed to the ID scheme, the NHS IT scheme and the third Heathrow runway - all sources of considerable immediate savings to the public purse. Both Cameron and Clegg have worked successfully together in the past in opposition to Broon - in blocking 42-day detention and, as acolytes to the Blessed Joanna, peace be upon her, in securing settlement rights in the UK for Gurkha veterans. Above all, they were both educated at Clarendon Schools and Oxbridge whilst Broon is a state-school oik who, if the Mail (not always the most reliable source, I grant you). is to be believed today, cannot even maintain a civil tone in a telephone conversation with someone with whom he is trying to ally himself.

By all accounts, events are moving more rapidly than was thought with Broon returning from Scotland today, presumably to get his P45 from Her Maj tomorrow and with Cameron going to the Palace after he has addressed his parliamentary party. A coalition government should be announced tomorrow night with Clegg as Home Secretary (Chris Grayling has made himself expendable after the gay B&B remarks were revealed during the campaign), Cable as Chief Secretary and deputy to Osborne, Chris Huhne as Environment Secretary and David Laws as Schools Secretary (Gove will probably be moved to Higher Education).

Tomorrow will be quite appropriate as it marks the 70th anniversary of the formation of another Coalition Government in a critical period for this country that turned out to be reasonably successfully. The man who was appointed to lead that government recollected his emotions some years later:

During these last crowded days of the political crisis my pulse had not quickened at any moment. I took it all as it came But...I was conscious of a profound sense of relief. At last I had the authority to give directions over the whole scene. I felt as if I were walking with destiny, and that all my past life had been but a preparation for this hour and this trial...I thought I knew a good deal about it all, and I was sure I should not fail. Therefore, although impatient for the morning, I slept soundly and had no need for cheering dreams. Facts are better than dreams.

[lardbucket]

I smell the looming failure of coalition talks and of the young Tory-LibDem romance ... and the installation of NewNewLabour, Broonless, propped up by Clegg's LibDems.

'Labour offered us the electoral reforms we wanted, which the Tories wouldn't'.

You heard it here first.

[Basil]

"Political reform" not "Electoral reform" from Clegg now.

Sold out it would seem. Qunt.

At a time when the defecit is national priority number one I truly believe both parties need to seek a common ground and put electoral reform on the backburner.

Apparently Clegg & Cameron had a 70 minute talk alone tonight.

I just don't see how the Libs can align themselves with the Tories when their position on the economy - the key issue at this moment in time - is diametrically opposed with Genuine Dave's planned immediate cut-a-thon.

Labour should sack Brown immediately. And as they can't install a new party leader without an internal election, offer the Libs a coalition - with their own leader given the position at the head of the table.

Clegg's ego wouldn't allow him to turn down the opportunity to be PM, even if it was PM with a massive asterisk and about as much credibility as Cameron's love of "the Radiohead".

It'd be a cluster-f*ck, everyone would hate it, but amusing nevertheless.

Yes, and Mark Pettini will doubtless be appointed England captain in the fullness of time. Since you've recently given up your own position of leadership here recently you've either been at the magic mushrooms or you're trying to arrange the production of a NSR card. The idea that a leader of 54 MPs who had lost seats at the election could make a credible Prime Minister especially of a fractious Lab-Lib coalition which still did not have an overall majority in the Commons is, frankly, bonkers.

Clegg would make Ramsay Macdonald presiding over the 'National' Government in 1931-5 look a strong Prime Minister and I doubt such an arrangement would last 5 minutes let alone 5 years. The time to sack Brown, as with Foot in 1983 and Kinnock in 1992, was before the election not after it. It's a little bit late in the day now as far as Labour is concerned. As we have learnt that there is no constitutional procedure for sacking the Prime Minister, even after his party has lost almost 100 seats in the election to the principal opposition party, so there is no procedure for removing the Labour Party leader unless someone is prepared to challenge him this autumn (assuming he goes into opposition) and there is no evidence that anyone wishes to play Brutus to an increasingly deluded and reality-detached Caesar.

Also, the evidence from both political parties is that he who wields the knife almost never gets to wear the crown. You are also quite wrong to say the Lib-Dems are diametrically opposed to the Tories on the economy - both are opposed to the increase in NI contributions which Brown and Darling are proposing to bring in next year as the principal means for dealing with the deficit. Both are in favour of substantially raising the tax threshold - the Tories to £5000, the Lib Dems to £10000. The point of difference is not one of principle but of figures.

Both are opposed to the ID scheme, the NHS IT scheme and the third Heathrow runway - all sources of considerable immediate savings to the public purse. Both Cameron and Clegg have worked successfully together in the past in opposition to Broon - in blocking 42-day detention and, as acolytes to the Blessed Joanna, peace be upon her, in securing settlement rights in the UK for Gurkha veterans. Above all, they were both educated at Clarendon Schools and Oxbridge whilst Broon is a state-school oik who, if the Mail (not always the most reliable source, I grant you). is to be believed today, cannot even maintain a civil tone in a telephone conversation with someone with whom he is trying to ally himself.

By all accounts, events are moving more rapidly than was thought with Broon returning from Scotland today, presumably to get his P45 from Her Maj tomorrow and with Cameron going to the Palace after he has addressed his parliamentary party. A coalition government should be announced tomorrow night with Clegg as Home Secretary (Chris Grayling has made himself expendable after the gay B&B remarks were revealed during the campaign), Cable as Chief Secretary and deputy to Osborne, Chris Huhne as Environment Secretary and David Laws as Schools Secretary (Gove will probably be moved to Higher Education).

Tomorrow will be quite appropriate as it marks the 70th anniversary of the formation of another Coalition Government in a critical period for this country that turned out to be reasonably successfully. The man who was appointed to lead that government recollected his emotions some years later:

During these last crowded days of the political crisis my pulse had not quickened at any moment. I took it all as it came But...I was conscious of a profound sense of relief. At last I had the authority to give directions over the whole scene. I felt as if I were walking with destiny, and that all my past life had been but a preparation for this hour and this trial...I thought I knew a good deal about it all, and I was sure I should not fail. Therefore, although impatient for the morning, I slept soundly and had no need for cheering dreams. Facts are better than dreams.

I wonder if the purpose of today's meeting at Downing Street is for Brown to announce to his colleagues that he's resigning as Labour Party Leader, but staying on as PM until a credible government is formed.

This would enbable Labour to appoint some sort of interim leader to negotiate with Clegg should the Lib Dems be unable to strike a deal with the Tories - it's no secret that Clegg and Brown do not see eye to eye.

[Allan D]

I smell the looming failure of coalition talks and of the young Tory-LibDem romance ... and the installation of NewNewLabour, Broonless, propped up by Clegg's LibDems.

'Labour offered us the electoral reforms we wanted, which the Tories wouldn't'.

You heard it here first.

Labour can't deliver anything - first of all Labour & the Lib Dems do not make a majority - do the maths. They would be 14 (or 11 discounting the absent Sinn Feiners) short. There would have to be a deal with the Scots & Welsh Nats who would doubtless demand virtual autonomy for Edinburgh & Cardiff which would be a bridge too far, even for Broon. In any event, such a government would risk being blown away by the first few adverse bye-election results.

Secondly, the Labour Left is as opposed to PR as the Tory right is and they would prefer to put up with periodic Tory Governments than perpetual Lib Dem rule. It is problematic whether Broon could get electoral reform through even his own party.

Thirdly Broon himself doesn't support PR. He is on record as favouring the maintenance of single-member constituencies which makes PR impossible and the AV system or preferential ballot, used in Australia, which would give increased power to Lib Dem voters (provided they cast a second preference) but would do nothing to improve Lib Dem representation at westminster. Far from producing a "balanced" parliament AV would exaggerate single-party majorities.

So, in your dreams, lardy. I'm just going to put a bet on Mark Pettini captaining the next Ashes tour, first.

I see Labour is, anyway, going into its usual meltdown. John Mann, yesterday, and George Howarth, on the World at One today, have called for Broon to go to the Palace immediately and advise the Queen to send for Cameron and for Broon to then step down as Labour leader and for a new leader to be elected at the LP Conference this autumn. They are, at least, in touch with reality unlike the self-deluded Broon, and your good self, lardy.

[JKLever]

Brown shouldn't resign until there's a credible government to take his place, whoever it is.

He's not squatting he's doing the right thing.

I almost don't care what colour party we come out with as long as Harriet Harman bitchwoman doesn't get her hands on the country.

[WideWally]

I smell the looming failure of coalition talks and of the young Tory-LibDem romance ... and the installation of NewNewLabour, Broonless, propped up by Clegg's LibDems.

'Labour offered us the electoral reforms we wanted, which the Tories wouldn't'.

You heard it here first.

I'm hoping for that kind of result. I'd laugh for a week as the forum tories implode.

[DJ_Smerk]

Have we discussed the worrying prospect of the Digital Economy Bill?

Seems like the Bails may get censored and shut down when it comes into power.

[JKLever]

I don't think UK bills extend to having French based websites shut down...

Besides, Clegg hates the DEB

[Allan D]

I wonder if the purpose of today's meeting at Downing Street is for Brown to announce to his colleagues that he's resigning as Labour Party Leader, but staying on as PM until a credible government is formed.

This would enbable Labour to appoint some sort of interim leader to negotiate with Clegg should the Lib Dems be unable to strike a deal with the Tories - it's no secret that Clegg and Brown do not see eye to eye.

Doubt it. Firstly, Labour has already had one unelected leader and i don't think the party members would take too kindly to another 'fix' and being denied a second ballot in 3 years. Any leader chosen in this manner would lack any authority and merely provide a recipe for internal civil war.

Secondly, as I have pointed out to Lardy above, it is not just the personal relationships (which I agree are pretty awful, mainly due to Broon's lack of social skills and intolerant mindset) that inhibit a Lab-Lib deal but the parliamentary arithmetic. A Con-Lib Dem deal would have an overall Commons majority of 40 as well as representing 59% of those who managed to vote on Thursday. A Lab-Lib deal would still be in a minority and would necessitate further deals with the Nats, Alliance, SDLP and Uncle Tom Cobbleigh. It would be vulnerable to backbench rebellions and adverse bye-elections. It would be a return to the Callaghan Government of the 1970s.

Furthermore Clegg knows that Lib Dem support would drop faster than a stone down a well if he sustained Broon, or even a Johnson or Miliband, Government in power and it wouldn't be long before his party activists who would be getting caned in local government elections insisted that he withdraw his support as they did to Steel, in similar circumstances, in 1978. Clegg will be polite to Labour but he won't touch them with a bargepole, if he has any sense. He knows there is only one show on in town currently for which he has a chance of getting a reasonable price for admission.

[Hass]

Brown is officially gone one way or the other.

He's just announced he will step down as Labour leader before the next party conference. If the Lib Dems do a deal with Labour and the nationalists he would only stay on as Prime Minister for a few months while a new leader is chosen.

[JKLever]

If the LibDems do a deal with Labour which keeps Brown in downing street for another 5 months and puts nationalists in power at the same time in return for less spending cuts in 'their' patch then they'll join the same sinking boat together.

Gordon Brown just wiped a cent of the value of the pound in 1 minute

[Guest]

This is like a farking soap opera .

[JKLever]

Adam Boulton on Sky was going apesh!t at Alastair Campbell just then. Losing the plot totally...

[Allan D]

This is like a farking soap opera .

If we get PR, you'd better get used to it. This will happen every six months, if we're lucky!

[Guest]

This is like a farking soap opera .

If we get PR, you'd better get used to it. This will happen every six months, if we're lucky!

Actually I'm finding it quite entertaining at the moment. So long as it's all sorted by the end of the week.

[Basil]

Adam Boulton on Sky was going apesh!t at Alastair Campbell just then. Losing the plot totally...

I thought Boulton was actually going to tw@t Campbell at one point - great fun!

[Allan D]

Doubt it, going by his statement, this looks like a ploy by Gordon to try and get a Lib-Lab deal and scupper a deal with the Tories. Sucks.

Next PM to be chosen by the Labour Party Conference, not the voters. No referendum on PR. What a stitch-up! So much for democracy.

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