Re: Horse Racing Thread

by G.Wood Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:08

tac wrote:See, mate, I'm not so pretentious afterall . ..

On second thoughts, I might be more inclined to believe mudge

by tac Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:09

It sounds silly, I know, woody, but this IS bradders you're talking to . . .

by G.Wood Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:09

Billies

by tac Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:10

G.Wood wrote:
tac wrote:See, mate, I'm not so pretentious afterall . ..

I second thoughts, I might be more inclined to believe mudge

Make up your mind, I won't be able to sleep tonight knowing you are still on those horns . . .

by Bradman Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:25

G.Wood wrote:
Bradman wrote:
G.Wood wrote:One of those factors is what the BD may do to the odds - and you waited and lost. You may as well have plonked on Keno anyway

No because if it had drawn barrier 18 I would've been farked. Five days out I can make an informed decision (no matter how wrong that decision might be). Betting on it before the barrier draw is like betting on keno because you're hoping the numbers fall your your way.

I'm a gambler not a slot machine player.

So you were waiting for him to draw a good barrier (and, hence, have the odds reduced) before backing him and then complain when he draws a good barrier and the odds reduce?

If it was any other race. I don't believe in taking good odds a long ways out on that race that's all. Whilst a good bd would've reduced the odds maybe, the withdrawal of two of the favourites was what slashed the odds.

by G.Wood Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:31

"the withdrawal of two of the favourites was what slashed the odds."

Yep and increased Kirklees chances no end.

FWIW I reckon you'll get better than $9 on the tote come saturday. Bart's 3 will attract a shed load of support because, well, Bart is a genius - and will start unders. Something like Daffodil will be back too

by Bradman Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:37

Well I always worry about a Bart runner and the CC is always a bit wierd which is why I took the fixed price.

So what if it get's out I'm locked in. And I don't reckon you'll get better than that because there may just be a plunge that brings it into favourite at the last minute.

by G.Wood Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:39

Bradman wrote: And I don't reckon you'll get better than that because there may just be a plunge that brings it into favourite at the last minute.

Well you know it won't be coming from the owner

by Bradman Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:45

Caulfield Cup is always a good "skirt bet" race, so I also look for outsiders with pretty names.

by bodyline Thu 15 Oct 2009, 06:48

G.Wood wrote:and he gets a little helper to all the tedious stuff up front.

Bit like a Ron Jeremy film.

by bodyline Thu 15 Oct 2009, 07:00

4 CIMA DE TRIOMPHE (IRE) (Luca Cumani) 55.5 Damien Oliver 11

by Merlin Thu 15 Oct 2009, 08:41

Where the hell can I get tissue prices on this bloody race?
The local bookies have the runners and riders but seems they haven't got an early show/form guide yet!

Bodyline - why CIMA DE TRIOMPHE ?
Beaten 10l by Sea the Stars at Sandown and 8l by Gio Ponti at Arlington both in 1M2F races on Good going in smallish fields when he failed to pick up in the last furlong BOTH times ... I really can't see how he's going to up the distance and run through a crowded field in the CC ... but hey ... as the saying goes, the horse doesn't know the facts!

by Mick Sawyer Thu 15 Oct 2009, 10:48

Where the hell can I get tissue prices on this bloody race?

centrebet.com

by Merlin Thu 15 Oct 2009, 11:16

Thaks.
Why is Fiumicino at such lengthy odds (70/1 ish) ?
Can't be that bad a donkey, if his form guide is anything to go on ....

by Mick Sawyer Thu 15 Oct 2009, 13:45

Merlin wrote:Thaks.
Why is Fiumicino at such lengthy odds (70/1 ish) ?
Can't be that bad a donkey, if his form guide is anything to go on ....

Barrier 20 - best results to date are on a heavy track & I don't believe bad weather is expected, something has to distract them punters from the big payout choices?

by G.Wood Thu 15 Oct 2009, 23:23

Merlin wrote:Where the hell can I get tissue prices on this bloody race?
The local bookies have the runners and riders but seems they haven't got an early show/form guide yet!

Bodyline - why CIMA DE TRIOMPHE ?
Beaten 10l by Sea the Stars at Sandown and 8l by Gio Ponti at Arlington both in 1M2F races on Good going in smallish fields when he failed to pick up in the last furlong BOTH times ... I really can't see how he's going to up the distance and run through a crowded field in the CC ... but hey ... as the saying goes, the horse doesn't know the facts!

There are no Sea the Stars in this field - it's a field of donkeys.

However, the last 3 years has been a donkey's race. I think all 9 placegetters in that time have been well into double figure odds

by bodyline Fri 16 Oct 2009, 00:15

Merlin wrote:Where the hell can I get tissue prices on this bloody race?
The local bookies have the runners and riders but seems they haven't got an early show/form guide yet!

Bodyline - why CIMA DE TRIOMPHE ?
Beaten 10l by Sea the Stars at Sandown and 8l by Gio Ponti at Arlington both in 1M2F races on Good going in smallish fields when he failed to pick up in the last furlong BOTH times ... I really can't see how he's going to up the distance and run through a crowded field in the CC ... but hey ... as the saying goes, the horse doesn't know the facts!

All Luca's runners previously have come here coming off handicaps overseas and performed here. Cima has been racing in group company overseas - and has plenty of reasons why it didn't win in Arlington. As for Sea of the Stars - watch the Prix win of Sea and I reckon 10L off that horse makes Cima a good horse.

But - the final decision will be made when we see what the weather does in Vixen. Frankly - after Maldivian was scratched and stuffed my doubles - I hope it's a no race!

by Merlin Fri 16 Oct 2009, 07:47

[quote="G.Wood"]

Merlin wrote:

There are no Sea the Stars in this field - it's a field of donkeys.

However, the last 3 years has been a donkey's race. I think all 9 placegetters in that time have been well into double figure odds

Granted Sea the Stars 10L win over Cimo at Sandown (saw the race live on TV) flatters the latter somewhat as it ran on through tired horses whilst S t S was easing up - so I wouldn't use that as a true yardstick ...
I will however acknowledge that Luca Cumani is both a brave and a canny trainer whose feats Down Under cannot be dismissed lightly.

Having briefly studied the tissue form, I still like the look of Fiumicino (bar stall 20) and at 50's he'll carry my small e/w punt!

by JGK Sat 17 Oct 2009, 08:04

Viewed (former Melbourne Cup winner) wins and Roman Emporer (Derby winner) second. Quality usually comes to the fore in big races. Not sure how often a horse has won the Caulfield AFTER having won the Melbourne previously.

by Mick Sawyer Sat 17 Oct 2009, 08:16

JGK wrote:Viewed (former Melbourne Cup winner) wins and Roman Emporer (Derby winner) second. Quality usually comes to the fore in big races. Not sure how often a horse has won the Caulfield AFTER having won the Melbourne previously.

Have a vague memory that Skipton did it. There's bound to be others.

by WideWally Sat 17 Oct 2009, 10:09

After the race Ch9 were saying that Skipton & Rising Fast were the only two horses who had done it previously but surely Poseidon would also qualify. There may be others.

by Hass Sun 18 Oct 2009, 22:49

You'd think that after this performance I'd get on Viewed in the Melbourne Cup (as long as the handicapper isn't too cruel).

But no, I'm still bitter about Viewed's win over Bauer in last year's Cup. I make this mistake regularly ie. holding grudges against good horses simply because I didn't back them way back when.

by bodyline Mon 19 Oct 2009, 00:02

Efficient was handicapped top weight with 58 for the MC. Viewed was allocated 57 - so the penalty can't be big. They are not going to rehandicap above 58.

by G.Wood Mon 19 Oct 2009, 00:07

At least the CC has symplified the Melbourne Cap. Wipe the O/S horses and they are only 4 possible chances. Viewed, Efficient Speed Gifted and Alcopop

Of course, if punting were that easy I would be home in bed and not be avoiding work by stuffing about on here

by horace Mon 19 Oct 2009, 00:18

only a brilliant ride by Rawiller knocked off my pony- Roman Emperor

still got a decent result

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