Re: The UK General Election Thread (II)

by Growler Fri 07 May 2010, 10:13

So ...... The people have spoken

THE BASTARDS !!!!!!

by Growler Fri 07 May 2010, 10:17

Merlin wrote:OFFICIAL : Hung Parliament in the UK.

Financial markets reacting badly to the news ... £ down and getting hit hard.

I said as much a few pages back - and the stock market will follow.

Nobody's in a position to do what needs doing ie take the axe to gavernment spending.

We're in for a rough ride for a while .......

by Allan D Fri 07 May 2010, 10:17

Clegg has to protect the position of the Lib Dems in the next election in either 2011 or 2012. Sustaining Broon in power will be shackling his party to a corpse. Broon will not deliver STV which is what the LIb Dems want. Broon wants AV in which Lib Dem voters vote Labour as a 2nd preference which won't correct the present imbalance in the voting system but will further exaggerate it.

In any event no change to the voting system can be pushed through without a referendum and it is likely that the Conservatives will present any referendum as a stitch-up to keep Broon in power and it will turn into a plebiscite on whether Broon and the Lib Dems should stay in office - a plebiscite that would likely be lost by the government ruling out electoral reform for a generation. Even if it were to go through it is highly unlikely that the necessary boundary changes could be made before another election could be held - an election that the Conservatives would probably win by an overall majority as the sole principal party of opposition.

Clegg has little alternative but to keep his distance from both parties (the Lib Dems will probably abstain over the Queen's Speech) allowing Cameron to form a minority government. Cameron will then have to play a delicate balancing act for the next 18 months or 2 years until he could achieve an overall majority. It will be interesting to see whether he would, or could push through his own version of electoral reform of equalising the number of voters in each constituency and reducing the number of MPs by 10% which would supply a death-knell to Labour.

by Growler Fri 07 May 2010, 10:23

Allan D wrote:

< snip >

It will be interesting to see whether he would, or could push through his own version of electoral reform of equalising the number of voters in each constituency and reducing the number of MPs by 10% which would supply a death-knell to Labour.

It certainly would ............ if only because if every constituency has the same number of voters + or - 1,000 or so, then (at a guess) Scotland will lose close to half its MPs as constituencies are merged ...... the scots are well over-represented at Westminster. Quite possibly the same thing with Wales.

by JKLever Fri 07 May 2010, 10:28

The sight of Harriet Harman publicly whoring herself to the Libs is sickening.

by Guest Fri 07 May 2010, 10:34

I'm finding all of the parties squirming to be thoroughly entertaining. Essentially they have all lost.

by Guest Fri 07 May 2010, 10:43

Oooo Cleggy looks like he is backing the Tories...

by Allan D Fri 07 May 2010, 10:45

No real "Portillo Moment" apart from perhaps Peter Robinson, who was predictable, as Ed Balls held on by the skin of his scrotum but gave a graceless victory speech that will probably mean he will not, thankfully, be Labour leader either now or in the near future.

A slew of junior ministers lost but no one from the Cabinet. Main Lib Dem victims were the eccentric Lembit Opik and Susan Kramer, neither of whom were part of the leadership group. Ex-ministers such as Jacqui Smith and Charles Clarke were defeated but other ex-ministers such as John Hutton and Andrew Smith (whose seat at Oxford East was more vulnerable to a Lib Dem challenge than Clarke's at Norwich South) retained their seats against trend. Still waiting for Poplar and Limehouse to see what has happened to George Galloway.

Clegg's statement just now seems to ensure that Broon will resign either today or tomorrow.

by Guest Fri 07 May 2010, 10:45

I think we can safely say that Cameron will be PM now.

by Basil Fri 07 May 2010, 10:48

So, Clegg reckons that Cameron should get first dibs at forming a government - he's consistent at least. Electoral reform might be a step too far for the Tories though - that would certainly be the price they would have to pay for Lib Dem support.

by Merlin Fri 07 May 2010, 10:49

vilkrang wrote:Oooo Cleggy looks like he is backing the Tories...

yeah, just heard that too.

Hope Cameroon keeps the little prick on hold till he's checked his other options.... DUP etc...

The way the LimpDems have alarmingly swayed from one side to the other is indicative of just how "supportive" they'd be, should they be invited to form a government.

F**king shallow bastards ...

by Allan D Fri 07 May 2010, 10:50

Growler wrote:
Allan D wrote:

< snip >

It will be interesting to see whether he would, or could push through his own version of electoral reform of equalising the number of voters in each constituency and reducing the number of MPs by 10% which would supply a death-knell to Labour.

It certainly would ............ if only because if every constituency has the same number of voters + or - 1,000 or so, then (at a guess) Scotland will lose close to half its MPs as constituencies are merged ...... the scots are well over-represented at Westminster. Quite possibly the same thing with Wales.

Quite - but also the inner cities where there are electorates of 50,000 where only 50% vote and a party can win with 40% of the vote.

by Guest Fri 07 May 2010, 10:52

Merlin wrote:
vilkrang wrote:Oooo Cleggy looks like he is backing the Tories...

yeah, just heard that too.

Hope Cameroon keeps the little prick on hold till he's checked his other options.... DUP etc...

The way the LimpDems have alarmingly swayed from one side to the other is indicative of just how "supportive" they'd be, should they be invited to form a government.

F**king shallow bastards ...

Sorry but that's bollocks Merls, before the election he said that the party with the most seats and the most votes should have the first right to form a government and he is sticking by that, if anything he should be commended for not going back on that and cosying up to Labour which is what most people thought he would do.

by Basil Fri 07 May 2010, 10:57

Merlin wrote:
vilkrang wrote:Oooo Cleggy looks like he is backing the Tories...

yeah, just heard that too.

Hope Cameroon keeps the little prick on hold till he's checked his other options.... DUP etc...

The way the LimpDems have alarmingly swayed from one side to the other is indicative of just how "supportive" they'd be, should they be invited to form a government.

F**king shallow bastards ...

Heaven help us all if we have a Government reliant on the DUP for its existence.

by JKLever Fri 07 May 2010, 10:58

Quite, Clegg has been entirely consistent.

Cameron will have to give some sort of electoral reform though, and he will know it because Libs would get it with Labour anyway.

by Basil Fri 07 May 2010, 11:10

JKLever wrote:Quite, Clegg has been entirely consistent.

Cameron will have to give some sort of electoral reform though, and he will know it because Libs would get it with Labour anyway.

All he has to do is to concede a referendum on electoral reform.

by Guest Fri 07 May 2010, 11:15

Electoral reform is definately needed, it's ludicruous that 22.9% of the country voting for a party is reflected by them having less than 10% of the seats in parliament.

by JKLever Fri 07 May 2010, 11:25

But you don't want electoral reform where the country constantly has a hung parliament,imo

by Basil Fri 07 May 2010, 11:30

It works in Germany - i don't see why it shouldn't be effective here.

by Growler Fri 07 May 2010, 11:37

It'll work allright, BUT ......

all of you wanting electoral reform .......

be prepared for a significant wad of BNP MP's, as they will no longer be protest votes - they will count just like every other. You can be sure many, many thousands more people will be willing to vote for them simply because there is no other party right of centre.

Nick Griffin deciding government policy - now that is scary.

Don't believe it can happen ? Just look back to the last Euro polls .......

by Allan D Fri 07 May 2010, 11:53

On the other hand...just seen that Glenda Jackson has got back in Hampstead & Kilburn on 32.8% of the vote with a majority of 42 - smallest so far I think- because voters couldn't decide between the Conservatives and Lib Dems. This part of London has been very disappointing - Emily Thornberry back, Corbyn doubles his majority to more than it was in 2001 (probably also means that Labour will retake Islington Council from the Lib Dems too today) and now Glenda back. Blair effect obviously worked in Islington. So much for tactical voting. Last time I do that. Rather makes one want to lose the will to live suicide

Small swing from Lab to Con of about 2.4% (less than half national trend) in London probably means that Labour will pick up borough councils they lost or failed to win in 2006 when those votes are counted today.

by Merlin Fri 07 May 2010, 11:54

Sorry but that's bollocks Merls, before the election he said that the party with the most seats and the most votes should have the first right to form a government and he is sticking by that, if anything he should be commended for not going back on that and cosying up to Labour which is what most people thought he would do.

It's called "hedging your bets", Vilks. heads I win, tails you lose syndrome ....

Remember - before the election he also said he'd be "interested" to hear what Mr. Brown would have to offer in the event there wasn't a clear cut result .... and ...
The LibDems have ALSO lost seats ... so where's the public endorsement?!

Typical used-car-salesman politiking. ..... The exhausts falling off guv'nor, but the windscreen wipers work .....

Shallow and untrustworthy... but hey, you're entitled to your opinion!

by Merlin Fri 07 May 2010, 11:59

... he should be commended for not going back on that and cosying up to Labour which is what most people thought he would do.

I wouldn't put it past him to do just that as it's almost a given that Cameron will not agree to a PR voting system.

by Allan D Fri 07 May 2010, 12:08

Growler wrote:It'll work allright, BUT ......

all of you wanting electoral reform .......

be prepared for a significant wad of BNP MP's, as they will no longer be protest votes - they will count just like every other. You can be sure many, many thousands more people will be willing to vote for them simply because there is no other party right of centre.

Nick Griffin deciding government policy - now that is scary.

Don't believe it can happen ? Just look back to the last Euro polls .......

If Cameron was really smart he would offer the Lib Dems a multi-option referendum consisting of:

1) 1st past the post + AMS on a party list system such as already applies in the Scotland, Wales & London regional assemblies.

2) STV such as applies in NI

3) AV favoured by Broon & (most but not all of) Labour.

4) A regional party list system such as applies in the Euro elections

5) A total national party list system such as currently applies in Israel and South Africa

or

6) Existing system with an equalisation of seats and a reduction in number of MPs.

Chances are that turnout would be ridiculously low as voters would not be able to understand what was on offer thus enabling the Conservatives to demonstrate that it was not a priority of voters therefore there was no mandate for change. The proponents of the various schemes would cancel each other out as Labour would be as opposed to STV which the Lib Dems favour as the Conservatives would be and the voters would be suspicious of a list system under which they would have no control over which candidates were elected. The 6th option favoured by the Conservatives would as likely be as popular, if not more so, than the other 5.

Thus Cameron would be able to grant the Lib Dems their referendum whilst at the same time kicking the issue into the long grass.

by Merlin Fri 07 May 2010, 12:13

PMSL .... coffee all over the keyboard!!

Reports this morning indicate that Farage's (UKIP) aircraft crash yesterday was, sort of, self-inflicted!

Seems that the plane had made 4 aborted low runs across the airfield in attempts to pick up a UKIP banner for towing across the skies over Buckingham - but the 5th attempt went horribly wrong when the banner snared on the tail-wheel and flipped the aircraft over! Ouch!!

Anyway the Ber-cow Buckingham seat count close to revealing whether Highflyer Nick or Snout-in-Trough Bercow make it to Westminster ....

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